When we look out west, there’s a pretty big break in the rain.
There’s plenty more rain coming over the next few days. The immediate question is: what about this afternoon?
Well, the HRRR model thinks it’ll rain steadily this afternoon and tonight.
It’s hard to believe the HRRR lately, which has been overestimating – at times wildly overestimating – rainfall totals.
The NAM4 model seems to be handling this better — delivering a mid-morning and early afternoon rain lull — only for the rain to increase in coverage and intensity after halftime of the Titans game. Here it is:
I suspect the models are mishandling the amount of rain we will see, and we will actually see less rain than forecast. Still, anyone going outside today is crazy not to bring rain gear.
Rain should continue tonight, then winding down overnight into early Monday morning.
Light Rain Monday – Wake Up 51°, Highs 63°
We still think it’ll rain, but it should be lighter, and less of it.
Rain, Thunderstorms Overnight Monday – Tuesday
Overnight Monday into Tuesday morning, rain will increase in coverage and intensity. Why? The strong cold front that’s been sitting to our west for days will finally arrive.
This comes with a chance of thunderstorms, but nothing severe is expected.
Considering the rain we’ve had, the rain we’ll get Sunday and Monday, and the rain to come Tuesday, flooding could become a problem Tuesday.
Those areas that see heavier thunderstorms — and therefore heavier rain — could enhance flooding potential.
Remember that mention of Friday snow in yesterday’s forecast? It’s gone from the forecast.
This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.
Categories: Forecast Blogs