Another Radar, Refresh to Update
Saturday – Off & On Light Rain – High 73°
A corridor of rain stretches from San Antonio to Nashville this morning, but the worst of it is in Texas.
Morning rain should be light and sporadic. The HRRR model thinks rain coverage will increase by noon through early afternoon, then switch back to a light, sporadic, mostly “off” pattern tonight:
Rain dynamics are obviously in place today, but they could be stronger. Total rain amounts should be light, and should prevent today from being a total washout. Venture outdoors with rain gear. Cloud cover will keep our high temps in the low 70°s. Not worried about strong or severe thunderstorms; in fact, I doubt we will see any lightning today.
We’ll update this forecast on Twitter @NashSevereWx today.
Sunday – More Rain, Cooler – Wake Up 58°, High 64°
Sunday looks similar to Saturday, with rain dynamics in place, but not so strong.
However, whereas Saturday brings us a warmer, south wind, Sunday’s wind will be out of the north. That means a cooler rain. Don’t be fooled by Saturday if you’re going to the Titans game. It won’t be “cold,” but it’ll be cooler than today.
Rain should continue off and on Sunday morning into the afternoon. Rain coverage and frequency will decrease as we go through the day. NWS expects about 0.20″ of rain Sunday. More rain is expected south of us (cf. the “waggle” I wrote about yesterday; it “waggled” south). Note the Euro model expects very little rain Sunday. I’m interested to see what the HRRR thinks about Sunday late tonight.
Next Week – Patricia
Hurricane Patricia came ashore in western Mexico yesterday, then trucked northeast and started to lose strength.
Monday morning, what’s left of Patricia will be near Louisiana, connected to a moisture plume stretching into Middle Tennessee. Models do not agree on the timing/arrival of any heavy rain It appears to be a safe bet the heaviest rain will be south of Tennessee. We still think rain is likely Monday, but with so much uncertainty, saying exactly when or how much appears pointless. However, generally speaking, 0.50″ seems to be safe bet for Monday rain.
Another 1″ to 2″ of rain is expected Tuesday through Thursday. Looks bad for weeknight sports next week.
This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.
Categories: Forecast Blogs