Today – Showers and thunderstorms this Afternoon and Evening H: 92°
The severe weather outlook today has us included in an enhanced risk.
The moisture and above average temperatures will increase storm development this afternoon and evening. Storms will fire up ahead of a cold front that will be drifting though Kentucky into Tennessee.
The main threats for today are damaging winds, frequent lightning, hail, and heavy rainfall.
The probability of damaging thunderstorm winds 25 miles within a point is 30%.
The probability of hail with a 1″ or greater diameter 25 miles within a point is 15%.
The tornado probability is very low for our area (2%).
Keep the umbrella with you because the HRRR model shows isolated showers and thunderstorms popping up after 1:00 pm.
As for the evening hours, the NAM model shows showers and thunderstorms rolling into Tennessee by 7:00pm.
By 9:00pm storms will intensify as they get closer to our our area.
By 11:00 pm storms not as intense, but still capable of being severe.
At 5:00 am storms continue to move east and lingering showers and thunderstorms will stick around throughout the morning. They will be very brief and continue to diminish at lunchtime on Saturday.
This system will not be a washout! Our area is expected to get slightly above 1″ of rainfall over the next 48 hours. Some neighborhoods could get higher rainfall totals.
Since it is lightning safety awareness week, read more on how to stay safe today during thunderstorms.
Copy and paste the link: http://www.lightningsafety.noaa.gov
Saturday – Cooler Temperatures! Waking up: 71° H: 78°
A 14 degree temperature difference is expected after the cold front passes.
In the morning and afternoon – lingering showers and thunderstorms.
Sunday – Mostly Sunny Skies! Waking up: 62° H: 82°
This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.
Categories: Forecast Blogs