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Winter Storm Watch ETA & Accumulation Updates

Current Temps and Radar

Seeing too many good memes to ignore.

Thanks! @bobbimartin

The following is included in Wednesday’s forecast, in order: 61°, non severe thunderstorms, 0.5″ to 1.5″ of rain, Areal Flood Watch (Davidson Co only), freezing rain, sleet, snow, 26°.

Taking a longer view:

From @RuthSevereWx who you should follow BTW

from @mrs_actor_dude, thanks!

For Today: A warm front has arrived, sending temps into the low 60°s and dewpoints into the upper 50°s. Rain will be off and on today. Tonight, rain chances increase. Expect a steady soaker to settle in during the wee hours of Wednesday morning. A few thunderstorms are possible tonight, but no severe weather is expected.

Most of the rain will fall Wednesday.

This morning, NWS removed Williamson County from the Flood Watch. Davidson County remains:

At some point late Wednesday, the rain will change to freezing rain, then sleet, then snow. To account for this, a Winter Storm Watch is in effect.

Last night, models indicated a delay in the “rain-to-wintry mix” changeover time. This delay trend has continued, and has pushed back changeover ETAs. It still looks like an evening changeover for us.

6 PM seems to be a good estimate for the changeover for Nashville, an hour so later for Williamson Co. NOTE: these are approximate times, and will need to be updated later tonight, and tomorrow when we switch from “forecasting” to “nowcasting.”

Warmer temps today will help mitigate the freezing rain impact, but it should not do much to lessen the forecasted sleet and snow accumulations, which remain Snowdome-busting:

Travel will be a total mess when the changeover occurs. Travel is not recommended Wednesday night or Thursday morning, and probably not through Thursday night into Friday.

Temps will be really cold Thursday morning as snow slowly tapers off.

Thursday’s high is 28°. We may hit single digit temps Friday morning. Everything will freeze/refreeze.

We won’t make it above freezing until Friday afternoon. Sunshine and warmer temps are expected Friday and Saturday. The March sun angle will melt more snow than a December/January sun would have.

Consult multiple reliable sources for weather information multiple times as the weather community continues to ingest fresh model data to define and refine ETAs and accumulations. 

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here. Updated information is often posted there and is not reflected on this website.

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