Rain Today. Maybe a Little Snow, Very Cold Tomorrow. Snow Thursday?

Current Temps and Radar

Today – Rain – High 57°

It’s going to rain most of today. Expect about 1″.

Here’s another radar view:

It’s also going to be windy, gusting into the 20 mph range, so be sure you don’t go outside expecting one of those purse-sized or weak umbrellas to do any good.

After the overwhelming majority of the rain moves east of us after the game, we will be watching a cold front approach Middle Tennessee. If the freezing temperatures arrive in time, it may change any “back edge” rain to snow.

The models do not paint a very consistent picture of exactly whether, or if so, when, this will happen.

1.   The NAM4 model keeps the freezing line on the other side of the Mississippi and Ohio rivers at 11 PM . . .

. . . and does not get here until just before 6 AM:

This model suggests we may see few flakes around sunrise, but little else.

2.   The GFS model generally agrees with the NAM4 model above. It delivers a very modest amount of snow:

3.   The Euro model doesn’t think we’ll see much/anything, either. The Canadian model advertises the most precip after the freezing line arrives, but even it doesn’t think will get more than 1/4″

NWS-Nashville has us down only for a “dusting to 1/4 inch” of snow Monday.

Probably the biggest shock will be Monday’s temperatures. After mid 50°s today, wind chills early Monday morning will be in the low 20°s. Wind chills will stay in the 20°s all day. We are not expected to get above freezing until afternoon, and when we do, it will only be briefly.

Any leftover precipitation from Sunday plus any wintry precipitation we get early Monday morning will want to freeze. However, a strong pro-school northwest wind will help dry out the roads.

During this morning’s forecast discussion, NWS-Nashville wrote “we will likely have to deal with some patchy road icing Monday morning. While it will be breezy throughout this event, there will likely have been enough rainfall so that roads won’t have an opportunity to completely dry out before temperatures fall below freezing early Monday morning.”

NWS-Nashville has issued the following Special Weather Statement regarding travel tomorrow:

Monday’s wake up temp will be near freezing. The high will be 36°. The wind will be strong, so bundle up.

I spent some time this morning looking at the GFS and Euro models for Wednesday night and Thursday. They generally agree (for now).

The GFS has the best illustration, which is convenient because terms of service will not allow us (or almost anyone) to post Euro model images. By 6 AM Thursday, the temperature profiles should support snow. Meanwhile, a weak, low-precipitation front will drift into Middle Tennessee, and if it happens like this, it’ll probably produce snow:

Guesstimations of snowfall accumulation (WARNING: not a forecast, use for entertainment purposes only, must be 21, includes possible side effects of being totally wrong) include 1″ to 1.5″ by the Euro model, 2″ to 3″ per the GFS model.

It’s too early to start dreaming of idyllic snowmen, epic saucer-sled races, and hot chocolate. But, also,

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