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Rain Tomorrow, & a Snow Tease! (LOL Like It’ll Ever Snow Again)

Current Temps and Radar

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Summary

Details

We will remain clear and cold for the start of the weekend. A low-pressure system to our West will kick the below-pictured disturbance into Middle Tennessee, delivering rain beginning sometime Sunday afternoon.

We think this will be off-and-on rain lasting into Monday morning, with only light scattered showers into Monday afternoon and evening. There’s a pretty small chance very light lingering precipitation could changeover into a wintry mix early Tuesday morning,

Here is the NAM model for late Monday night, which shows a really if he wintry mix set up departing quickly Tuesday morning:

The European model also thinks we may see a brief changeover to frozen precipitation as most of the rain from Monday pulls east. The odds of any meaningful wintry accumulation appear pretty low right now, but the models are all over the place. We are hoping for more clarity on this with the data that comes in tomorrow morning.

Things become more interesting, and more uncertain, Tuesday night and Wednesday night.

Tuesday night — a very fast polar jet will develop across the southern United States on Tuesday, and send “pieces of energy racing eastward that will bring a chance for light wintry precip to the midstate late Tuesday night into early Wednesday.” (NWS, morning forecast discussion).

The GFS-upgrade version of this model isn’t really picking up on this “piece of energy.” Neither are the European or Canadian models. Meh.

Wednesday Night – of the two wintry precip chances next week, this is the better one.

Let’s start with the Canadian model, sure to encourage snowfans:

The GFS model has the precipitation in place, but not the snow friendly temperature profiles.

The European model does break off the piece of energy and send it east, it just doesn’t send it into Middle Tennessee. I would not draw very many conclusions from the current run of this model; it is sending necessary-for-snow vorticity in our general direction, so who cares where exactly it puts it. It’s too far away to know.

And, that’s really the theme here. This potential “event” is too far away to drill down close to any specifics, but the general pattern is interesting.

And, there are those times we think we can snow, we forget who we really are, and, well, this:

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