Before you go to bed…

Current Temps and Radar

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All eyes tonight are on the ongoing snow to our our NW, moving SE.

The question is: will it get here?

Below is the latest run of the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model. This image should auto update. If it doesn’t, refresh your browser. You’ll see the time in the upper right corner of the image.

At the time of this writing, this model was showing this light snow staying together until it reaches the Tennessee/Kentucky border. At that point, the model thinks all the snow will fizzle out as the energy sweeps by us.

Weather models aren’t perfect. Use these for guidance, but not gospel. They can be, and often are, wrong. The good news is that we don’t have just one. We read all the models and look for consensus. When we see a consensus, the confidence in the forecast is higher.

What do the other models say?

The NAM4 model thinks we will see some very, very light snow starting around rush hour in the morning. Here’s what it looks like at 8 AM:

Another model, the HRW-N, predicts about 1/4″ of snow. Its cousin, the HRW-A, sees a few flakes, but nothing measurable.

Among the global weather models, the GFS sees maybe a dusting. The revered European model thinks the snow will dissipate when it crosses the Ohio River, and we’ll get nothing.

So, if you’re looking for a consensus here, there isn’t one. I like the way NWS-Nashville is handling it:

“We are likely to see some snowflakes in the morning, but the potential for measurable snowfall remains in the low range (20-30%). The best chance for snowflakes around Nashville is during the morning rush-hour, and a few decent bursts of snowflakes will certainly get some folks excited. However, any bursts of snow will be brief and have very low liquid content, so we do not expect significant travel impacts. By 10 AM… The incoming dry air will allow partly sunny conditions to develop over Nashville Metro.”

The snow is not the big concern. Temps are. After this snow potential passes, extremely cold air and strong winds will pile in behind it. As I write this, the temperature is 31°. That temperature will steadily decline through the overnight hours, through the morning, into the afternoon, and still falling until very early in the morning Thursday. Expect 23° when you wake up, 20° at noon, 16° by 3 PM, and 12° by 9 PM. We should bottom out at 4° between 3 AM and 6 AM Thursday.

When you combine that with sustained winds close to 20 mph, Wednesday is going to feel like 10° at 6 AM, 6° by noon, 0° by 3 PM, and -2° by 9 PM.

I will not post another update on this website tonight. We will put the rest of our content on Twitter @NashSevereWx. We will be up early in the morning on Twitter. Please follow multiple reliable sources for your weather information, including local TV stations.