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Rain Likely, Thunderstorms Possible & Freezing Rain Unlikely

Current Temps and Radar

Quick Summary: Next 48 Hours

Temps still pretty cold.

Rain is Coming.

Today – Showers Likely & Freezing Rain Looking Less Likely  High 41°

Beginning at 4 PM we will have a chance for showers due to a disturbance blowing in out of the Southern Plains like a tumbleweed.

Overnight between 10 PM and 1 AM we will have our best chance for freezing rain. All the models except the Euro are showing the freezing line north of the Kentucky/Tennessee border. The GFS shows that we will be between 32° and 35° from 6 PM through Midnight.

6 mid freez

The National Weather Service still thinks surface temps will be too warm for any ice to accumulate.

no confidence

The only place that may see accumulation will be bridges/overpasses and your cars. With a warm southerly wind, no ice is expected to stick around for the Friday morning commute.

Friday Rain – Wake Up 34°, High 40°

We will have increasing chances for rain throughout the day as moisture continues to build into Middle Tennessee.

The chance for rain in Nashville will remain likely overnight.

Saturday More Rain & Isolated Thunderstorm Possible – Wake Up 39°, High 61°

A low pressure system will develop in the Gulf of Mexico and move north along the Mississippi River. Once it reaches the Ohio River Valley (north of TN) it will move west and bring Middle Tennessee showers.

The Storm Prediction Center believes there will be just enough sufficient instability to produce a few thunderstorms.

spc day 3

At 3 PM the NAM is showing a line of showers and thunderstorms moving though Davidson and Williamson Counties ahead of a cold front. Additionally, the low pressure system that is driving this whole event will be pushing eastward.

21z NAM sim rad

Showers will remain likely overnight.

Extended:

extended

There will be a small chance for snow as moisture wraps around the backside of the low pressure system. Temps will be cold enough for snow to develop behind the cold front, but there needs to be enough moisture for that to happen. Looks pretty unlikely right now.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

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