This radar GIF (last four hours; refresh for latest data) shows the big low pressure system lifting north. This will spread rain and a few thunderstorms in Middle Tennessee tomorrow.
Sunday – Rain & Storms, Also Windy – Wake Up 49°, High 65°
Earlier, it looked like the rain would start falling around 6 AM. Now that the short-range models are in play, we need to push that ETA back.
The HRRR keeps the main rain blob in central Mississippi at 7 AM:
After a few early morning sprinklers, the NAM4km model doesn’t deliver the main rain event until 1 PM:
HRW-N/A models generally agree: off and on showers in the morning, then the soaking rain after lunch. GFS and Euro data also supports this.
So, we think there will be off/on rain in the morning, but the “main event” will hold off until after noon. Great news for #monkeymarathon.
That main event may include thunderstorms. In fact, the Storm Prediction Center has us in their “Marginal” severe thunderstorm outlook for Sunday:
On a scale from 0 to 5, 5 being the worst, “Marginal” is a 1. The main threat includes damaging straight line winds, hail and, heavy down pours. But, the threat is truly marginal. Meh.
Winds will be a bit of a big deal tomorrow. A Wind Advisory (issued when gusts are expected at 30+ MPH) will probably be needed. Winds are expected to gust up to 40 MPH. Remember, these are non-thunderstorm winds, which will be rocking by mid afternoon and continuing into the evening.
The bulk of the activity will have pushed NE of us by midnight with a few lingering showers possible into Monday morning.
Monday – Lingering Showers – Wake Up 51°, High 59°
We will hold onto a chance for lingering showers until noon.
The rain pulls away, and a relatively quiet and cooler weather week settles in.