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Update on Severe Weather Today

At 3:28 PM the SPC issued a MD for the TN Valley. With continued instability and stronger mid level flow severe storms are possible.

MD #1816

Isolated to scattered severe storms with hail are possible into this evening. If the is an increase in storm coverage and organization then a Severe Storm Watch will be issued.

At 2:49 PM the SPC issued a MD (Mesoscale discussion) that included Middle Tennessee. The MD outlined the increasing instability and the severe storm potential.

MD #1850

A severe storm watch will be possible within the next few hours. The main concerns are damaging winds and hail.

Current Temp

TodaySevere Storms Possible – High 73

The storms from this morning have pushed off to the east. The main threat for severe thunderstorms will occur later this afternoon into the evening as a piece of energy from an upper level disturbance currently in Missouri breaks of and pushes over Middle Tennessee. The Infrared Image from 8:15 AM below shows the location of the disturbance.

infrared

At this time, we think strong to severe storms associated with this upper level disturbance may begin firing up this afternoon/tonight.

NOTE: There is a tremendous amount of uncertainty about this forecast. The computer models are all over the place, showing little to no consensus. So much so, it’s time to dust off this GIF:

However, there are plenty of storm-making ingredients currently in place which NWS thinks will promote storm development this afternoon.

Current Radar

The storms that will begin to flare up this afternoon and early evening will have the potential to be severe. Here is a look at the main threats associated with these strong to severe thunderstorms.

The Storm Prediction Center believes the probabilities of “x” happening within 25 miles of you are:

15% for 1″ Hail. This is the main concern.

1621z SPC Hail Outlook

15% for Winds 58+ MPH

1621z SPC Wind Outlook

5% for a Tornado

1621z SPC Tornado Outlook

This threat is relatively low compared to the Wind and Hail threats. NWS-Nashville says “tornadoes do not look like a threat, but an isolated one cannot be ruled out.” The wind field isn’t great for turning/rotation at lower levels. That’s good news.

Again, regarding timing: we don’t have a good handle on this. Our best idea is that by late afternoon, storms are expected to form around the TN/KY border, then move our way into the early evening. Note that the models are not advertising a big development of storms, but there are good reasons to think those models are wrong.

Severe Weather Briefing - 11am Today - slides attached - nashseverewx@gmail.com - Gmail - Internet Explorer 2014-10-06 11.07.20

Warnings are never posted here. This site supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter.

TuesdayThunderstorms Likely – Wake Up 58, High 78

There will be another — albeit smaller — chance for severe weather in Middle Tennessee as another wave of energy traverses through. The Storm Prediction Center believes the severe activity will be much more isolated. Here is a peek at the Day 2 Probabilistic Outlook.

spc day 2 problistic

The brown areas indicate a 5% chance of severe weather within a 25 miles of a point.

These storms are likely to fire up during the late morning into the afternoon hours. According to the National Weather Service, we will go from thunderstorms “likely” to a “chance” overnight.

The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center believes we could see between 1″ to 2″  of rain in the next two days. Below is the predicted rainfall amounts between 7 AM today to 7 AM Wednesday.

qpf 1-2

Some isolated areas in Middle Tennessee could see over 2″! Flash flooding in low laying areas could be an additional concern. #turnarounddon’tdrown

Follow @NashSevereWx and other reliable sources (including local TV!) for weather information (local TV, radio). Stay #weatheralert y’all!

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