Got Plans This Afternoon & Tonight?

Current Official Hourly Observation (taken at :53 on the hour)

This morning has been a washout. Lightning in the Middle TN area was around 55,000 strikes (cloud to cloud, and cloud to ground) most of the morning, but there was very little/no indication of severe weather (defined as 58 mph winds and/or 1″ hail).

Expect the morning storms to clear by/before noon.

After an early afternoon lull in rain/storm activity, “additional showers and storms [are] expected to develop Sunday afternoon and Sunday night.” (NWS, forecast discussion, 716 AM).

Severe weather is not expected, other than a 5% chance of 58+ mph winds occurring within 25 miles of us:

However, frequent lightning and localized flooding/ponding on roadways is likely.

If “afternoon and evening” isn’t specific enough for you, here’s a run down of the ETA timing disparity among three short-range weather models:

1.  HRRR thinks rain/storms will resume around 4 PM:

2.  RAP thinks 2 PM:

3.  Hi-Res NAM says 8 PM:

Soooo, 2PM to 8PM. Helpful, isn’t it? My Monopoly money is on 5 PM.

Rainfall totals could be significant. Through 7 AM Monday, rainfall totals could spill over 2″:

I’ll update this tonight.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter. Warnings are never posted to this site.