Forecast Quandaries

quandary definition - Google Search - Windows Internet Explorer 2014-08-08 17.09.35

Forecast quandaries confronting NWS-Nashville tonight include (1) a meandering weak summertime surface frontal boundary, (2) convective boundaries from previous day’s convection, (3) differential diurnal heating aspects per cloud coverage breaks, and (4) shortwave passages in developing northwesterly flow pattern aloft.

If you can solve for all these variables, congratulations! What was it like creating the Earth?

Current Official Hourly Observation (taken at :53 on the hour)

Rain and thunderstorms expected to arrive this afternoon from West Tennessee went south, missing us rather unexpectedly.

Current Radar Loop

Tonight, we think we will stay mostly dry — no promises there will be no rain — but I would not cancel any evening plans outdoors.

Patchy fog is likely Saturday morning.

By Saturday afternoon, a very humid airmass will be in place, setting off numerous showers and thunderstorms scattered across Middle TN, and possibly in our counties. We’ll hit the mid 80°s in the afternoon. About 0.26″ of rain is expected.

Rain chances will linger into Sunday. We’re forecast to hit 90° again, and I remain optimistic the bike ride Sunday night will be rain-free.

I used to have a bird who did this. Miss that guy.

The classic August rainy/wet/stormy/uncertain pattern is expected to continue through Tuesday.

7-Day Forecast for Latitude 36.17°N and Longitude 86.78°W (Elev. 479 ft) - Windows Internet Explorer 2014-08-08 17.40.07

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter. No warnings are ever posted here.