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Update on Rain Tonight, Tomorrow, & Saturday

Rain is still expected tonight.

Current Official Hourly Observation (taken at :53 on the hour)

Current Radar Loop

Obviously, rain is approaching. You can see the main rain blob pretty clearly, but showers developing ahead of the blob are possible before dark.

However, note: the rain blob is not expected to maintain current intensity. In fact, NWS believes “generally . . . [in] an overall decreasing chance of showers/thunderstorms as the evening progresses.” This is due to a weakening vort max loc…..nevermind, you don’t care why.

Friday still looks like a washout. Rain is expected off and on all day; NWS uses the term “occasional.” By Friday night, we think 0.5″ of rain will have fallen. Showers are forecast to be numerous in the evening, dumping perhaps another 0.5″, before tapering back down during the early Saturday morning hours.

A few thunderstorms will mix in with the rain, but organized severe weather is not expected, despite what may be appearing on Cable TV Weather Giants on the eights of the hour. To wit:

Twitter _ Jeffsavagemusic_ @nashseverewx The _Local on ... - Internet Explorer 2014-08-07 17.15.28

The Storm Prediction Center does not think there is any quantifiable risk of severe weather Friday:

Storm Prediction Center Aug 7, 2014 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook - Internet Explorer 2014-08-07 17.18.39

Rain will continue Saturday, but it should start winding down in the evening, in time for kickoff; however, I can’t guarantee a rain-free preseason game vs the Packers at LP Field.

We may see 2″ or so through Sunday night:

http___www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov_qpf_d13_fill.gif - Internet Explorer 2014-08-07 17.34.16

Finally, please enjoy this gif, which has nothing to do with anything:

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter.

Categories: Uncategorized