Forecast Blogs

Here Comes a Lot of Rain

It’s hot.

Current Official Hourly Observation (taken at :53 on the hour)

Today’s high is 95°. Mid/Upper 60°s dewpoints are sending the heat index to 98°, in the shade.

Rain is on the way, to relieve official “abnormally dry” conditions in N Davidson Co:

United States Drought Monitor _ Home _ State Drought Monitor - Windows Internet Explorer 2014-08-07 12.47.12

Look to our west at the approaching rain (current radar loop):

HRRR thinks a few showers may develop Thursday by late afternoon. Here it is at 4 PM:

COD Meteorology -- Numerical Model Data - Windows Internet Explorer 2014-08-07 12.51.59

By 8 PM tonight, the HRRR predicts the arrival of the main line of rain, and maybe a few thunderstorms.

COD Meteorology -- Numerical Model Data - Windows Internet Explorer 2014-08-07 12.53.47

Other models generally (but not completely) agree with this. For example, the NAM model depicts alot more arriving rain.

The point, however, is that it’s going to rain tonight. Our NWS just posted its latest thinking: scattered showers are expected around 5 PM, with rain chances increasing tonight and overnight.

Friday looks like a washout. Rain is expected off and on (mostly “on”) all day. Thunderstorms will mix in with the rain, but organized severe weather is not expected.

NWS: “several waves of thundery weather will dump some locally heavy rainfall tonight through Saturday night” . . . “some areas that see repeated heavy thunderstorm activity could see local rainfall amounts of 2”; however, right now, it looks like most areas will see between 1.50″ and 2″–which should be spread out over a long enough period of time to keep flood problems limited–consisting of mainly the typical ponding problems encountered in low spots and poorly drained areas.”

Rainfall totals may exceed 3″ to our west:

http___www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov_qpf_d13_fill.gif - Windows Internet Explorer 2014-08-07 13.03.03

Temps Friday and Saturday should approach 90° despite the rain and cloud cover. Dewpoints will hit 70°, signaling a classic August muggy rain.

Rain chances will linger into Saturday. There is hope the skies will clear for the Packers/Titans game at LP Field, but you should prepare for rain/humid conditions if you’re going to the game.

Finally, please enjoy this gif, which has nothing to do with anything:

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Categories: Forecast Blogs