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Rain On The Way!

Current Official Hourly Observation (taken at :53 on the hour)

Current Radar Loop

See that giant rain blob in Texas on the above radar?

Today  Last Pleasant Day – High 84

One more day, y’all.

The N wind will become NE during the afternoon, causing us to become mostly cloudy overnight, ushering in the end of Fall in July.

Friday Chance For Showers & Thunderstorms – Wake Up 61, High 82

A disturbance is approaching from the Southern Plains. It’ll eventually meet up with S winds, which will be busy causing an increase in temperature and humidity, and creating a chance of rain.

We’re dealing with disagreement by the weather models. The official NWS forecast includes our first chance of light rain around 7 AM. This is in case the NAM, below, is correct. It thinks the rain will begin in the early morning, with more steady rainfall arriving around 1 PM:

18z NAM

The GFS also agrees with this.

The European model delays the rain/storms until later in the day Friday. To account for this model disagreement, and following most trends, only 0.06″ of rain is forecast through 7 PM Friday.

Most of the rain is expected Friday night, overnight, and into Saturday morning.

The Storm Prediction Center is not forecasting any thunderstorm to be severe at this time.

SaturdayThunderstorms Likely – Wake Up 65, High 84

A trough of low pressure will remain over Middle Tennessee on Saturday making thunderstorms likely. The NWS believes we will see showers and storms off and on all day between 8 AM and 8 PM.

By 7 PM the NAM shows most of the showers East of Davidson and Williamson County.

0z NAM

Both the GFS and Euro models agree that we will see rain Saturday. It won’t be a complete washout, but with more than 0.5″ expected Saturday afternoon alone, it’ll wash out most outdoor recreational activities.

The SPC is not forecasting any severe weather at this time.

Through 7 AM Sunday the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center is forecasting us to get a little over 1″ of rain, total:

qpf days 1-3

We have a chance to add to this total. More rain is possible Sunday and Monday.

By Tuesday, we”ll return to the 90s. Speaking of returning to the 90s:

Editor’s Note: So, what should we do today? My best advice comes from a Great Philosopher and Pragmatist:

Extended Forecast:

extended

This website supplements @NashSevereWx.

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