Current Official Hourly Observation (taken at :53 on the hour)
Current Radar Loop
See that giant rain blob in Texas on the above radar?
Today – Last Pleasant Day – High 84
One more day, y’all.
The N wind will become NE during the afternoon, causing us to become mostly cloudy overnight, ushering in the end of Fall in July.
Friday – Chance For Showers & Thunderstorms – Wake Up 61, High 82
A disturbance is approaching from the Southern Plains. It’ll eventually meet up with S winds, which will be busy causing an increase in temperature and humidity, and creating a chance of rain.
We’re dealing with disagreement by the weather models. The official NWS forecast includes our first chance of light rain around 7 AM. This is in case the NAM, below, is correct. It thinks the rain will begin in the early morning, with more steady rainfall arriving around 1 PM:
The GFS also agrees with this.
The European model delays the rain/storms until later in the day Friday. To account for this model disagreement, and following most trends, only 0.06″ of rain is forecast through 7 PM Friday.
Most of the rain is expected Friday night, overnight, and into Saturday morning.
The Storm Prediction Center is not forecasting any thunderstorm to be severe at this time.
Saturday – Thunderstorms Likely – Wake Up 65, High 84
A trough of low pressure will remain over Middle Tennessee on Saturday making thunderstorms likely. The NWS believes we will see showers and storms off and on all day between 8 AM and 8 PM.
By 7 PM the NAM shows most of the showers East of Davidson and Williamson County.
Both the GFS and Euro models agree that we will see rain Saturday. It won’t be a complete washout, but with more than 0.5″ expected Saturday afternoon alone, it’ll wash out most outdoor recreational activities.
The SPC is not forecasting any severe weather at this time.
Through 7 AM Sunday the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center is forecasting us to get a little over 1″ of rain, total:
We have a chance to add to this total. More rain is possible Sunday and Monday.
By Tuesday, we”ll return to the 90s. Speaking of returning to the 90s:
Editor’s Note: So, what should we do today? My best advice comes from a Great Philosopher and Pragmatist:
This website supplements @NashSevereWx.
Categories: Forecast Blogs