Let’s take a moment to review yesterday (Tuesday)!
Monday, 4:12 PM, from the Hydrometerological Prediction Center (and everyone else) said rain, and lots of it:
Tuesday, 5:18 PM
Note: there was one earlier run of the Hi-Res NAM (which is having a great summer, BTW) that had this pretty much nailed. More recent runs of the Hi-Res NAM did not, as did every other weather model. There were meteorological reasons to believe gardeners would have the night off.
Now, to be fair, Spring Hill and S Williamson Co got a lot of rain, some wind (maybe even a downburst, see below), and lightning.
Even at 8:04 PM, the Storm Prediction Center still has us outlooked for severe weather potential.
By 9:25 PM, it was looking apparent nothing would happen.
Results: very, very little rain in most places.
I could get super technical and otherwise justify little, but certainly not most, of this. But, in the final analysis, this is appropriate:
As the great James Spann (@spann) says, “there is a lack of humility in the weather enterprise. We aren’t as good as we think we are.” This is indisputable.
The atmosphere is incredibly complex, we don’t understand it well enough, we don’t have nearly the amount of data we need to understand it well enough, and we all need to recognize and embrace that. A lot of good work is done in weather, but sometimes we get it wrong. If you’re looking for expressions of perfect foreknowledge in weather, let me know where you find it.
If, after reading this, you’re still aggrieved: don’t worry, The Intern 2.0 will be by shortly to water your lawn.
Categories: Forecast Blogs