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Update on Severe Weather Potential Tuesday Afternoon/Evening

Current Official Hourly Observation (taken at :53 on the hour)

Current Radar Loop

Temp & Rain Probabilities Next 36 Hours (auto-updating)

Tonight – Rain/Storms Staying North

The regular lunchtime forecast included discussion of a MCS (technical term: Hot Thunderstorm Pile) moving into KY, passing to our North. That’s exactly what’s happening. Radar at 715 PM:

Tuesday – Severe Thunderstorms Possible  – Wake Up 71, High 93

The Storm Prediction Center says the probability of a severe weather happening event happening to us, or within 25 miles of us, Tuesday is 30%:

This will be a classic summertime MCS, featuring heavy rain, lightning, and damaging wind potential.

Hail can’t be ruled out, and while no one is ruling out a tornado, it’s the least likely of all severe weather modes.

ETAs look to be mid-late afternoon into the evening hours. This will be a pokey system, descending with the speed of an old man getting into a tub.

The NAM Simulated Radar hasn’t wavered from the morning runs. It has the leading edge of these showers and thunderstorms in Nashville at 4 PM.

Lot of rain coming.

Wednesday – Cloudy, Thunderstorms Likely – Wake Up 69, High 87

The slow-moving front will be to blame for showers and thunderstorms lingering into Wednesday morning, ending sometime Wednesday afternoon.

We may see more than 1″ of rain from this. From the Weather Prediction Center:

The SPC has not outlooked us for any severe weather after 7 AM Wednesday.

Extended Forecast:

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter.

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