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Off/On Rain Tonight; AM Fog; Storms, then Chilly Next Week?

Current Official Hourly Observation (taken at :53 on the hour)

Current Radar Loops

Temp & Rain Probabilities Next 36 Hours (auto-updating)

Tonight – Scattered Showers — 51 at 10 PM 

As you can see from the above radars, keep the rain gear handy tonight. Showers will slowly move in and out of the area. Lightning, and some hail, is possible. Severe weather is not expected.

HRRR model 4 pm Tuesday – 1 am Wednesday:

Wednesday – AM Fog; Then Sunny – Wake Up 40 / Afternoon High 65

Assuming the fog does not get trapped at the surface like it has the past few times, things should clear out and warm up nicely.

The fog is a result of all the rain we’ve seen lately.

Thursday – Clear & Sunny – Wake Up 43 / Afternoon High 73

Enjoy this typical Spring day: “winter” in the morning, “summer” in the afternoon. #Rinse&Repeat

Official Extended NWS Forecast:

Screen Shot 2014-04-08 at 3.51.05 PM

Strong Thunderstorms & Cold Next Week?

Weather models agree: on Monday, there will be a line of heavy rain ahead of a cold front. When the cold front passes, temps may drop 20 to 30 degrees below average.

Storms might accompany the rain line. They may be strong, possibly severe, but we don’t know right now.

GFS model Monday 1 am – Wednesday 7am:

The European model wants to keep the rain arriving a little bit later on Monday than the GFS. The Canadian model is the slowest, with the rain arriving after Midnight on Monday.

Just keep it in the back of your mind that it is severe weather season and this is certainly something to keep an eye on.

Now as for the cold…The GFS model shows temps 22 degrees below average for us Tuesday at 1 pm:

gfs_t2m_anomf_east_30

The Climate Prediction Center gives us 40% chance of seeing below average temperatures from April 14 (Monday) through April 18 (Friday):

610temp.new

This outlook remains through April 22 (two Tuesdays from now):

814temp.new

That’s right: colder than normal:

This website supplements info @NashSevereWx on Twitter.

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