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Update on the Overnight/AM Rain/Storms

Current Official Hourly Observation (taken at :53 on the hour)

Current Radar Loops

Tonight – Rain — 59 at 10 PM 

Here comes the rain. Be ready for it if going out tonight.

HRRR model shuts off the rain at 5 AM . . .

. . . then turns it back on again at 9 AM:

 

Don’t get too hung up on the exact “off” and “on” times. As our Memphis friends pointed out tonight . . .

. . . the actual times could be pushed back an hour.

Severe weather is possible with this system in Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama today.

(Follow @spann in Alabama).

Monday – AM Rain/Storms, Windy – Wake Up 54 / Afternoon High 67

Severe weather tonight/overnight should remain to our south. There’s only a remote chance of a damaging wind gust or a tornado in southern Middle Tennessee until 7 AM. Do not be alarmed.

Beginning after 7 AM Monday, the SPC (Storm Prediction Center) has included us in its 5% probability outlook for severe weather:

Screen Shot 2014-04-06 at 4.01.59 PM

Rain will end sometime mid-day. Rain could linger into Monday night. By then, we should have collected over 1″, maybe as much as 1.5″:

The wind will also be picking up Monday afternoon. Expect sustained winds between 10 and 20 mph, with gusts up to 30 mph possible.

Your ball game tomorrow night will almost certainly rain out.

Tuesday – Chance of Rain – Wake Up 42 / Afternoon High 60

Another wave of disorganized energy will move through Tuesday evening, bringing scattered showers across Middle Tennessee. It won’t be the soaker we are dealing with tonight and tomorrow morning, but it’s certainly going to frustrate the drying out process.

GFS model Tuesday 7 pm:

gfs_ptype_slp_east_10

Official Extended NWS Forecast:

Screen Shot 2014-04-06 at 4.55.15 PM

This website supplements info @NashSevereWx on Twitter.

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