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Morning Update: Details on Today/Tonight’s Severe Weather Potential

Current Official Hourly Observation (taken at :53 on the hour)

Current Radar Loops

Temp & Rain Probabilities Next 36 Hours (auto-updating)

Posted After 7 AM Thursday

ThursdaySevere Weather Possible Late Tonight – PM High 77

We could see a few showers/thunderstorms pop up. These will be scattered around Middle Tennessee, and a few could be strong or severe. The HRRR thinks a few storms will arrive early this afternoon (see below); however, another model (NSSL WRF – which performed well yesterday) does not think we’ll see afternoon storms.

Meanwhile, additional warm, humid, storm-fueling air will arrive from the south, setting the stage for severe weather late Thursday night/early Friday morning.

A squall line is expected to form in Arkansas, cross the Mississippi River near midnight (see below), and move into Middle Tennessee while we’re sleeping.

We remain, thankfully, outside the ominous “Moderate Risk” category.

However, we are included in the “Slight Risk” category. Don’t think “slight.” Think “elevated.”

The tornado threat remains mainly confined comfortably off to our west. Our probability of a tornado within 25 miles of you is 5%:

The probability of damaging winds (58+ mph) occurring within 25 miles of you is 30%:

The probability of 1″ hail within 25 miles of you is 15%:

Thus, the main threats are damaging winds and large hail, but an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

The rain/storms should be gone by 10 AM Friday morning. Total 36 hour rainfall looks to be just about 1″. The weekend looks nice.

I’ll be along early this afternoon to update tonight’s severe weather situation.

The website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter.

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