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Weekend of #SpringFail

Current Official Hourly Observation (taken at :53 on the hour)

Current Radar Loop

Temps & Rain Probabilities Next 36 Hours (auto-updating)

It’s National Flood Safety Awareness Week! 

Today’s topic is a little more complex. Our NWS does a great job explaining:

Friday Night – Increasing Clouds

It’s been a gorgeous first full day of Spring! Tonight that trend will continue.

Can’t rule out a sprinkle of rain after midnight.

Saturday – Rain on the Way – Morning Low 50 / Afternoon High 63

A cold front is approaching, which will kickoff our weekend of #SpringFail.

Someone is not taking the news well…

If only it was as easy as beating Winter to a pulp.

When?

Check out the temp/rain graphic above. Rain is most likely between 7:00a and Noon, chances drop off a bit, then increase again after dark.

This seems to track . . .

The Models: Morning Edition

UPDATE: RAP is “in range” and is showing dry weather in the morning:

WRF: Rain at 6:00a

Hi-Res NAM: 8:00a — rain misses us (barely)

GFS: 1:00a – 7:00a (GFS gives us very light/no rain rest of the morning)

Euro (not shown) think it will rain in the morning, but only south of I-40.

Most of the models think most of the afternoon Saturday will be rain-free; however, there’s at least a very small chance of rain during the afternoon hours. Late Saturday night, the rain returns.

The Models: Evening Edition

WRF: Rain resumes around 11:00p

Hi-Res NAM: Big rains begin around 10:00 pm

GFS thinks the rain will arrive after midnight:

Euro (not shown) brings more rain into Middle TN late Saturday night, but, again, it has most of it falling well south of I-40.

SundayColder – Morning Low 40 / Afternoon High 51

Rain will end by mid-morning. A north wind will drive early morning wind chills in the 30s. #SpringFail

Official Extended NWS Forecast:

Yeah, that says snow, but that’s just a chance of snow, and if it happens, no accumulation is expected.

#SpringFail

There is no official phobia for the fear of Winter, so Cheimatophobia will have to do (fear of cold).

GFS Model (temperature) Tuesday 1:00a – Thursday 7:00a:

Not even Superman can save you from the evil villain Old Man Winter.

This website supplements info @NashSevereWx on Twitter.

 

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