Wintry Shenanigans Late Sun/Early Mon? #BlameSears

Current Official Hourly Observation (taken at :53 on the hour)

Current Radar Loop

Tonight – Increasing Clouds Late & Cold

Temps Next 24 Hours (auto-updating)

Tonight — Light Rain (See Above Radar) – 9 PM 43

We still think we’ll only see about 0.12″ from tonight’s rain.

SaturdayOvercast — AM Low 39, PM High 55

We’ll be between two weather systems (Friday’s Rain, Sunday’s Rain/Mix/Whatever). Most of the day will be cloudy and mild, but we may see a few showers in spots. The day will not be a washout.

Sunday/Early Monday – Steady Rain, Changing to Ice/Mix? — AM Low 49, PM High 53

Rain chances will increase as we move through the day. Expect a washout Sunday night. The potential for wintry shenanigans increases late Sunday/overnight Monday.

Two nights ago, I got this email from Sears:

At the time, the weather models were relatively quiet.

Last night, I had a long conversation about soccer with a Sears employee, who mentioned in passing the Sears “liquidation sale” this weekend.

(Note: I wish I was making this up).

So, to review:

1.  Sears warned us all about an ice storm and offered to sell us generators and chain saws, then

2.  Sears started “liquidating” inventory.

Then, the models starting doing stuff like this:

At 3 AM Monday morning, the NAM model predicts Ice/Freezing Rain:

The GFS model predicts rain changing to a wintry mix/freezing rain event in the wee hours of Monday morning:

The Euro (not pictured) predicts accumulating wintry precipitation, most likely freezing rain/ice.

Even the Canadian model is calling for wintry/icy shenanigans during Monday morning’s wee hours:

Sears, y’all. Of all places, SEARS! If our #SnowDome is breached, #BlameSears.

Officially, our chances of ice are around 50%:

Here is the afternoon Hazardous Weather Outlook from NWS-Nashville:

The risk is greater to our NW. Higher-elevation locations (Joelton: Home of the Wooly Mammoth, and Fairview — I’m especially looking at you) are at higher risk:

Now, before you go all @PanicCatfish, consider:

1.  We’re still a long way away from the event. Ice storms require precise atmospheric conditions to occur. Our ability to forecast those conditions more than 48 hours away is *cough* suspect.

2.  Warm Sunday temps will make ice accumulation difficult.

3.  Temps are forecast to rise above freezing Monday afternoon (but not by much).

More details to come tomorrow.

We will be at Severe Weather Awareness Day Saturday at Trevecca. There are a few spots left. It’s free, but you need to register.