Forecast Blogs

4 PM Update on Tonight’s Severe Wind, Tornado Chances

Current Official Hourly Observation (taken at :53 on the hour)

Radar Display with Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado Warnings:

Current Radar Loop (this radar is crazy sensitive, the light green may not be reaching the ground. Also note this radar does not display Watches or Warnings)

Temps Next 24 Hours (auto-updating)

4 PM Update

The 2 PM weather balloon sampled the atmosphere above, and although severe weather is likely tonight in the form of damaging straight-line winds, it did not report data that was particularly alarming.

The ingredients necessary for a large tornado outbreak (which has never been in this forecast) are not present — namely, the dew points are way too low (in the 50s, tornadoes prefer 60s on days like this) and the winds are out of the S instead of the SE.

However, there will be plenty of wind shear (winds changing direction with height) to spin up a few tornadoes inside the squall line. We have already seen a few Tornado Warnings to our West (at 3:50 PM there was a Tornado Warning just SW of Memphis), and we can’t rule that out for us later tonight.

The main threat remains damaging straight line winds. Some of these winds can be as strong/powerful as tornado winds.

Here are a few slides from the NWS Conference Call at 4 PM:

Or listen to the NWS Conference Call here!

The info below remains current.

From a safe location, tweet severe weather reports (winds/tornado) to the NWS by including #tSpotter in your report.

This is likely to be the last time we update this website tonight. Additional/Updated information will be posted on Twitter @NashSevereWx. Follow multiple reliable weather sources tonight.

Don’t be caught in an unsecure location tonight (for example: outside, in your car, or in a mobile home) should these storms be Severe Thunderstorm Warned (for high winds) or Tornado Warned. These storms will be moving very, very quickly east.

An umbrella is not going to protect you from rain at any time today. The winds are too strong.

Monitor multiple reliable weather sources. Do not depend on only one form of media or only one information source. However, if a Warning is issued, it means you should act immediately.

We cover only Davidson and Williamson Counties. For other counties, follow @RuthSevereWx, @WilsonSevereWx, @RobCoSevereWx, @SumnerSevereWx, and/or @MaconSevereWx.

No Warnings are ever posted to this website. We relay warnings, and a ton of other info, on Twitter @NashSevereWx. This website only serves to supplement the content put on Twitter.

Categories: Forecast Blogs