Current Official Hourly Observation (taken at :53 on the hour)
Temps Next 24 Hours (auto-updating)
Current Radar Loop
Today – Severe Weather Likely Late Afternoon/Early Tonight – High 75
A Wind Advisory is in effect from 9 AM to 9 PM. These are for high winds before the storms arrive.
Sometime late this afternoon/early tonight (more on timing below), an intense line of thunderstorms will quickly sweep east across Middle Tennessee. The “line” of storms will look something like this on radar . . .
. . . and is usually referred to as a “squall line.”
Around 6:45 AM, the Storm Prediction Center outlooked us inside a “Moderate Risk” of severe weather:
There are 5 storm outlook classifications from the SPC (nothing, General, Slight, Moderate, and High). “Moderate” is only one step down from the highest category.
The most-likely-to-happen/main threat is Severe, Damaging Winds. As you can see from the below Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center, the probability of damaging winds or wind gusts of 58+ mph happening between 0 and 25 miles of you is now 45% (up from 30% early this morning). Winds 58+ mph cause damage, and when they get that high, they’re classified as severe.
Also note that we’re’ in the “hatched” (light blue shaded) area, which means the probability some of those winds or wind gusts will be hurricane force (74+ mph) is 10% or greater.
For a technical explanation of the SPC probabilities, read this.
There’s also a real, but much less likely, chance of tornadoes embedded inside the squall line.
The probability of a tornado occurring within 0 and 25 miles of you is 5%.
These tornadoes typically are short lived and relatively weak; however, strong tornadoes can be found inside these squall lines. For example, we had an EF-2 tornado in a similar squall line on January 30, 2013 (however, we are not saying we’ll see a repeat of that January 30, 2013 tornado outbreak).
Estimated Time of Arrival
Between 6 PM and 9 PM tonight.
These ETAs look consistent with the weather models, which give the following ETAs: 8 PM (Hi-Res NAM), 7 PM (HRRR), 8 PM (RAP), 7 PM (WRF), 9 PM (SREF).
Don’t be caught in an unsecure location tonight (for example: outside, in your car, or in a mobile home) should these storms be Severe Thunderstorm Warned (for high winds) or Tornado Warned. These storms will be moving very, very quickly east.
An umbrella is not going to protect you from rain at any time today. The winds are too strong.
Monitor multiple reliable weather sources. Do not depend on one form of media or just one source when getting your weather information. However, if a Warning is issued, it means you should act immediately.
We cover only Davidson and Williamson Counties. For other counties, follow @RuthSevereWx, @WilsonSevereWx, @RobCoSevereWx, @SumnerSevereWx, and/or @MaconSevereWx.
No Warnings are ever posted to this website. We relay warnings, and a ton of other info, on Twitter @NashSevereWx. This website only serves to supplement the content put on Twitter.
Categories: Forecast Blogs, Severe Weather