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Memo To: Fellow Snow Domers. Re: More of the Same

Current Official Hourly Observation (taken at :53 on the hour)

Temps Next 24 Hours (auto-updating)

Current Regional Radar

Today kicks off consecutive days of maybe/no/low snow chances for us. Check out this animated graphic from our NWS, covering Sunday through Wednesday:

Today – Cloudy; Chance of Sprinkles  Afternoon High 40

National Weather Service Text Product Display 2014-02-09 07-46-26

First, a reminder that Spring returns March 20, 2014, Days away:

A cold front arrives tonight. It’ll deliver a chance of light snow tonight. The HRRR is predicting a few “drive by” light flurries, but not enough to accumulate.

Monday – Cloudy; Slight Chance of Snow  Morning Low 24 / Afternoon High 32

National Weather Service Text Product Display 2014-02-09 07-48-50

Go south if you want to see snow. Like, down in Waynesboro, which has a Winter Storm Watch:

Most of the snow is forecast to fall in SW Tennessee, Mississippi, and Alabama; however, the NAM still wants to give us some off-and-on snow Monday:

The problem is that the GFS completely and totally shuts us out of any precip of any kind Monday. So does the Euro. Both models bring in the snow into N Mississippi and N Alabama Tuesday morning, and misses us completely. But, yet, the NAM still insists on its opinion. It won’t cave in. So, officially, only a “chance” of snow.

Tuesday – Mostly Cloudy  Morning Low 19 / Afternoon High 34

National Weather Service Text Product Display 2014-02-09 07-55-25

On this, the NAM, GFS, and Euro agree: We are too far north for snow. Go south if you want to see any.

Official extended NWS Forecast:

Screen Shot 2014-02-09 at 7.22.46 AM

Snow Chances Wednesday?

The European model wants to deliver 5″+ of snow Wednesday Night. Please take that with the biggest grain of salt ever.

This is just one model run and the only model showing this. The GFS, NAM, and Canadian models totally disagree and keep us mostly dry (the GFS “scrapes” us with another hahaha dusting).

Why aren’t the models in agreement? It’s all about the exact track of the center of a precip-making low pressure center moving NE from the Gulf of Mexico. Right now, most models think it will miss us to the SE. It needs to get closer to us to give us any snow, and only the Euro thinks it’ll come to Middle TN.

Uncertainty comes mostly from the fact that the low pressure has yet to develop in the Gulf of Mexico. We’re sure it’ll develop, but we don’t know exactly where, how strong it will be, or where precisely it will go. We only have a general idea of its track. We also can’t be sure exactly how strong a developing high pressure center in the middle of the country will be — which could block our snow event.

Shasta!

Questions? We’re on Twitter @NashSevereWx, where you can also find additional info.

Categories: Uncategorized