Too Far North For Snow? AGAIN?

Posted on Saturday, February 8, 2014 @ 6:34 pm by David

Current Official Hourly Observation (taken at :53 on the hour)

Temps Next 24 Hours (auto-updating)

Current Regional Radar

I hope you dug out from the snow we got last night.

Tonight – Mostly Cloudy – 9p 34

A weak shortwave arrives.

This shortwave will induce a chance of a few flurries and patchy drizzle after midnight. We don’t expect any rain or accumulating snow from it.

Sunday – Cloudy, Watching For Snow Shenanigans – AM Low 32, PM High 43

A cold front will pass by Sunday afternoon, but it won’t do much to trim our high temp of 43.

Officially, there’s a “chance” of flurries in the morning, plus a chance of rain in the afternoon.

The real question is:

Memphis & North Mississippi have a Winter Storm Watch from 6 AM Monday to Noon Tuesday (3″ to 4″!!!) — Is that coming here?

Monday & Tuesday – Weather Model Snow Disagreement – Monday AM Low 25, PM High 33 / Tuesday AM Low 19, PM High 32

Naturally, the models disagree about what we’ll see, and when:

One model has snow Monday:

The GFS completely disagrees with this. It has snow Tuesday, but it keeps the really good moisture south of I-40, either dusting us or shutting us out completely:

Our NWS thinks the best chance of snow is Monday night….but south of us. Maybe we get clipped by a marginal snow band, and maybe we won’t.

This is a low confidence forecast, but indications are that we are too far north to get snow from this system.

For the record, the European model passes all the precip to our south on Monday, missing us. Then, on Tuesday, it sends in more rain and snow well to our south again, also missing us (similar to the GFS).