Current Official Hourly Observation (taken at :53 on the hour) & Radar
Thursday – Very Cold Again; Mostly Cloudy, Few Flurries, No Accumulation – Morning Low 22, Afternoon High 29
6a 23 . 9a 25 . Noon 27 . 3p 28 . 6p 25 . 9p 22
NWS is expecting colder-than-normal temps over the next 7 days. It won’t be epic cold like we saw in January, but all cold is bad and should be abolished.
The wake-up wind chill will be 13. Wind chills aren’t forecast to be above 21.
Friday – An Even Colder Morning; Partly Sunny, then Cloudy…Snow? – Morning Low 16, Afternoon High 32
6a 17 (9) . 9a 22 (14) . Noon 28 (22) . 3p 31 (27) . 6p 30 (25) . 9p 28 (23)
Clouds will arrive Friday night, bringing a chance of snow with it. Of course, the weather models disagree on the ultimate questions: will we get snow, if so when, if so how much?
As usual, snow is unlikely. The Euro keeps a dusting just off to our north, shutting us out of any snow. The GFS also shuts us out of Friday night / Saturday morning snow.
Only the NAM wants to bring in light snow after midnight Friday, into Saturday morning.
As a general rule, when the NAM is disputed by the GFS and Euro, go with the GFS/Euro solution. But, yeah, I suppose we’re saying there’s a chance.
Dumb and Dumber reference
The Weekend – Messing With Our Minds: Rain/Snow/Nothing?
What can anyone make of this? If/When the precip comes in the morning or at night, we’ll see a little snow, but by the time the sun comes up, it all melts. I don’t expect much, if anything. Current models really aren’t supportive of any accumulating snow, either.
(If you don’t already get this joke, you definitely won’t think it’s funny, so there’s no point in explaining it.)
Who knows, though? Eventually, the Snow Dome has to fall.
Maybe this will happen next week.
From our NWS:
A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK, POSSIBLY TAKING A TRACK TO OUR SOUTH AND THEREBY BRINGING ADDITIONAL SNOW TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE. GIVEN THE DIFFICULTY OF ACTUALLY GETTING MEASURABLE SNOWFALL TO DEVELOP IN NON-PLATEAU AREAS, AM NOT YET FORECASTING ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS, AND AM NOT HITTING THE SNOW POTENTIAL VERY HARD IN THE FORECAST (CHANCE POP`S ONLY). THE ECMWF, WHICH GIVES A WARMER SOLUTION THAN THE GFS REGARDING NEXT WEEK`S SYSTEM, DOES PUT OUT A RELATIVELY HIGH QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS, MEANWHILE, LEANS TOWARD A LOWER QPF AND GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SNOW.
Translation: it may snow early next week. Of course, Euro and GFS models disagree, so we don’t really know.
DISCLAIMER! Models this far away are not forecasts. They’re merely saying: “there may be a dance next week, but we have no idea who will dance with whom, what kind of dance they’ll do, whether there will be chaperones, and it’s possible Donna Martin will get drunk and the dance will end prematurely for us and Donna will eventually graduate in May instead of at the end of the summer, etc.”
Translation: the ingredients for winter weather may arrive Tuesday, but there is so much uncertainty and disagreement, and so much can change, that we can’t say if it’ll snow or not. It may just rain.
No. One. Knows.
Bottom line: it’s worth watching. Let’s wait and see.
So, all that said, here’s the GFS Model for Noon Tuesday.
So, let’s just keep watching, and stare at this sign:
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Categories: Forecast Blogs