Current Official Hourly Observation (taken at :53 on the hour) & Radar
At midnight, I went to bed. All additional updates will be found on Twitter beginning at 5 AM. I’ll update this website sometime in the morning. Find us on Twitter @NashSevereWx.
Bedtime Update 11:45 PM
Well, we may still get a shot of wintry mix, or even snow overnight. From our NWS:
Here’s how the HRRR simulated radar handles the rain/mix/snow in the wee hours of the morning:
*Yeah, that should have said 5 AM
Remember — all additional updates will be found on Twitter beginning at 5 AM. Good night!
10:30 PM Update
The Storm Prediction center is concerned about an ice storm (freezing rain).
Davidson County is on the southern edge of that area of concern. Williamson County is excluded.
9:00 PM Update
From our NWS:
8:45 PM Update
Weather models indicate the above-freezing temps overhead will begin to cool significantly around midnight. A wintry mix is still forecast to occur later this evening into the early morning hours. Although we could still see some snow before the rain ends tomorrow morning, this is not going to be a meaningful snow event for us.
Freezing Line Update:
NAM-WRF Model predicts us to get below freezing between 4 AM and 9 AM:
The HRRR shows rain, then mix, then a brief shot of snow before sunrise Monday morning:
7:00 PM Update
That’s a lot of rain streaming in from the southwest.
6 PM Weather Balloon Suggests Freezing Rain
It’s above freezing from about 2,000 ft to 10,000 feet above the ground. All the precip that falls through that layer of above-freezing air will stay as rain. The surface is colder, and if it gets to 30 or less, it’ll be enough for the rain to freeze and form ice. The balloon data does not support snow in Nashville.
It’s All About The Freezing Line at the Surface
The freezing line has not moved much:
A Winter Storm Warning is in effect for counties to our North; but we are excluded. We remain under a Winter Weather Advisory:
Monday – Rain/Sleet/Snow Ending Around 6 AM, Mostly Cloudy
6a 30 . 9a 31 . Noon 35 . 3p 37 . 6p 35 . 9p 33
Additional/Updated info can be found on Twitter @NashSevereWx.
Categories: Forecast Blogs