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Ice, Ice, Maybe

Current Official Hourly Observation (taken at :53 on the hour) & Radar

11:00 AM Update

Temps have been falling this morning:

Official NWS Products

This morning’s theme was Walk The Line. Right now we think the better theme is:

(sorry about that horrible pun. It’s the only one in this post)

From our NWS:

We appear to be transitioning from a snow concern to an ice concern; however, NWS says this still may change:

Timing:

The chances of 2″ snow have all but disappeared from Weather Prediction Center guidance/models, but the ice potential is there:

We remain under a Winter Weather Advisory (mostly due to the ice/sleet), beginning at 9 PM tonight & ending at 6 AM tomorrow morning:

What the Weather Models Say About Snow

There still isn’t agreement, but the trend is toward less snow and more rain/ice.

The Euro (not shown) has 2″ of snow west of I-65, and a mere dusting to nothing east of I-65.

GFS Total sNOw as of Monday 6 AM:

NAM Total sNOw as of Monday 6 AM:

These models are doing their best to crush sledding fantasies hopes.

As for road conditions tomorrow morning, here’s one model’s opinion:

Temps Monday are forecast to be above freezing at 9 AM and get up to a high of 42, melting anything that falls.

Additional and updated info can be found on Twitter @NashSevereWx.com. Also, if/when you see sleet/snow, please let the NWS know by tweeting it with the hashtag “#tSpotter.”

7:00 AM Update

TodayRain; Winter Weather Advisory Tonight 

The rain is here, and as I write this (7 AM), the cold front is pushing through.

Temps in the upper 50s now will crash into the 40s soon, then fall into the 30s tonight.

It’s going to rain off and on (mostly “on”) all day. It’ll be a cold, miserable rain.

Sometime tonight, the transition to snow/mix is forecast to occur. The HRRR has this transition happening to our NW at 5 PM, and generally moving our way, but there is uncertainty in the arrival because the model cuts off (by the way, the RAP model — which runs a bit further out into the future — keeps us in the rain through midnight):

However, this is far from guaranteed. The location and timing of the rain/snow line is one of the most difficult things to forecast. If the line between freezing/above freezing temps wiggles just a little bit, we’ll either get 2″ or 3″ of snow, or just rain. We are right on the line.

Check out this grid from the NWS. If you don’t want to study it, it says there is a very good chance of sleet beginning at 9 PM tonight, continuing to midnight, then changing to snow after midnight, ending around 3 AM:

Because the freezing temps are forecast later tonight, our Winter Weather Advisory now begins at 9 PM (not 6 PM) tonight:

The timing for the onset of the wintry precip:

This model (it’s just one opinion) shows the probability of getting more than an inch tonight is very low:

For Monday morning: travel may be a problem, but this experimental (could be wrong) model on road conditions thinks a lot of it will melt on impact and/or the snowfall rates will be too slow to cause a problem:

Keep in mind there remains a LOT of uncertainty. Keep checking reliable weather sources today, because a lot may change. NWS is holding a conference call at 11 AM, and we’ll update this blog then. Questions? We’re on Twitter @NashSevereWx.

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