Current Official Hourly Observation (taken at :53 on the hour) & Radar

Tonight: Rain should be arriving around midnight.

Sunday: #TheCorrection: Rain, declining temps all day. 44 at 6 AM, 40 by Noon, 39 by 6 PM, 34 by Midnight.

Our NWS has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for Davidson and Williamson Counties, beginning Sunday night at 6 PM:

Winter Weather Advisories in Middle Tennessee are issued only for 1″ or more of snow.

At 9:13 PM, our NWS wrote:

Snow is more likely the further north you are. It’s entirely possible northern Davidson County could get a few inches of snow, while those along and S of HWY 96 in Williamson County get nothing.

ETA now 8 PM to Midnight Sunday:

The Hi-Res NAM:

This afternoon’s run of the European model (not shown) calls for almost 4″ in Joelton, 2″ along I-65, and only a dusting in SE Williamson Co.

Canadian Model says No Snow:

GFS still likes our freezing rain chances. It’s not calling for much/any snow:

Here’s a NOAA map showing a less than 40% chance of 1″ of snow:

When the weather models disagree like this, there can only be little confidence in the forecast. Wee-Bay is certainly confused:

Note, again, the forecast temperatures in the NAM model:

If you’re wondering whether school will be closed or if you’ll be able to get to work Monday, then the following graphic is not really helpful — it says it thinks there will be snow or ice on the road, but its ability to accumulate will be limited by warm road surface temps:

NOTE: latest runs of the above model have not changed much. If anything, they’ve pulled the worse road conditions ever-so-slightly away from us.

Questions? We’re on Twitter @NashSevereWx.com

We’ll update this blog in the morning.