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60º Saturday. Snow Sunday Night?

(Editor’s Note: When the Intern, @yakishk, took this gig, he agreed to (1) not get paid, (2) be dependable, responsible, and professional, and (3) find us his replacement. He has been terrific. He will soon graduate and enter the real world of crushed dreams and disappointment opportunity.

He has found underclassmenandwomen who are interested in being read a lot (454,247 page views since 3/22/13) by y’all. We “interview” applicants by tossing them in the water, and seeing if they can swim.

You’ll see the above Dilbert cartoon for every post written by an applicant for The Intern’s job.

Up first, Nick!)

Current Official Hourly Observation (taken at :53 on the hour) & Radar

Countdown to Spring: 47 Days

Countdown to Super Bowl XLVIII: 2

There’s a lot happening this weekend. We’ll see mild/warm temperatures Saturday, then drop into wet and colder conditions (snow?) by Sunday night.

Tonight – Increasing Clouds, Breezy – Midnight Temp – 39

6a 35 . 9a 43 . 12p 54 . 3p 59 . 6p 54 . 9p 42  

Midnight’s low temperature will be about 10 degrees warmer than last night’s. Cloudy, but a dry night if you’re heading downtown/SoBro.

(Editor’s Note: “SoBro” =  points for Nick).

Saturday – Nice Day, Then Evening Rain – Morning Low 35 / Afternoon High 60

Upper 50’s and low 60’s Saturday afternoon! We’ll stay dry through the afternoon. A few rain showers should hold off to the most western areas of Tennessee.

NWS posted this map showing this for Friday and Saturday morning:

Screen Shot 2014-01-31 at 12.50.01 PM

Saturday NightRain Arrives. 

Be sure to take an umbrella if you head out to any concerts or restaurants. A half inch of rain is expected.

Super Bowl Sunday Morning Low 36, Afternoon High 44, Evening Low 28 

There’s a chance of light rain through the early morning hours.

Here are the details on Winter Storm Maximus (dubbed by The Weather Channel)

(Editor’s GIF:

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Those traveling to Super Bowl parties should be aware of dropping temperatures. Rain may change to freezing rain or sleet late Sunday night/early Monday morning. 

(Editor’s Note: the NWS has a low confidence in this forecast due to various model discrepancies. The following illustrates current thinking, which is likely to change.)

Check out this map from the National Weather Service: A Super Wintry Mix! 

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The probability of freezing rain is greater the further south you are:

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Snow is more likely the further north you are:

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Travel may be impacted Monday morning; however, the ground will be warmed up by mild temps Saturday, and we’re forecast to be above freezing before noon Monday, so any accumulations should be short-lived.

Official NWS Extended Forecast:

Don’t forget! Groundhog Day is this Sunday as well! With week after week of continuous snow storms in the US (and more to come),  I’m sure this is how most people are feeling:

2011-02-02-groundhog

Happy Friday!

(Editor’s Note: in all seriousness, thanks Nick for your time and effort on this post. Ignore all my jokes. I really appreciate your work.)

Seeing Weather Models Claiming Snowmageddon More Than 5 Days Away? NWS-Louisville has the appropriate reaction, and I quote:

US National Weather Service Louisville Kentucky

Please SHARE this so that ACTUAL information is spread about potential storms down the road instead of hype. We need ALL your help to get this message out! Thanks.

***Rumor Control About Big Storm(s) Next Week***

With our office among others fielding questions about potential storms next week, we thought it was a good time to remind people what we know, what we don’t, and our limitations. With the internet and social media, combined with plentiful access to weather information, misinformation can spread quickly.

What We Know

• Our forecasting skill declines as time scales increase, especially beyond 5 days. We just are not that good beyond that. Don’t believe the hype for any storms beyond that time frame.

• A significant weather system will affect the Ohio Valley next week, with the best chances for precipitation from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning. Do we have any idea exactly what will happen? No, not this far out. What could be a snowstorm on one computer model run could just as easily change to a wintry mix or nothing at all, the next model run.

Our Limitations:

• We have access to computer model information out to 10 days and beyond. With a good conscience, we can’t post about every potential 7 to 10 day storm, like some do on social media or the internet. Our mission is to protect life and property and we will do that by posting sound, clear, and concise forecasts and warnings, when our confidence warrants that.

Categories: Uncategorized