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Déjà Vu Flurries + Another Severe Cold Blast Near End of January?

Current Official Hourly Observation (taken at :53 on the hour)

Tonight  – Cold & Light Flurries   Midnight Temp 27

Light snow flurries are slowly moving SE. They should dissipate tonight.

HRRR model for 5 pm shows no real snow potential:

hrrr_ref_nashville_5

 

Thursday –  Still Cold, But Warmer; Partly Cloudy & Windy  Morning Low 23 / Afternoon High 44

6a 24 . 9a 30 . 12p 39. 3p 43 . 6p 38 . 9p 34

Déjà vu!  Thursday and Friday will be alot like Tuesday and Wednesday.

Another cold front will arrive Thursday night. Winds will be increasing throughout the day between 5 and 15 mph, with gusts up to 25 mph.

Flurries may develop behind the front overnight Thursday into Friday, but no accumulation is expected. We hear @PanicCatfish is so unimpressed, he’s planning on reading a book Friday.

Friday – Cold, Morning Flurries  Morning Low 29 / Afternoon High 32

6a 28 . 9a 29 . 12p 31 . 3p 31 . 6p 27 . 9p 25

Another cold day. We do not expect we will get above freezing. We may see a few flurries, but no travel problems are expected.

Wind chills will linger in the upper teens and low 20s all day. A hat and gloves my be your best friend if you’re headed out.

Extended Official NWS Forecast:

Screen Shot 2014-01-15 at 2.44.29 PM

Another C-O-L-D BLAST?!?!?

Long range models have been showing another very cold air mass making its way south around the end of January.

Here’s what the models say: A ridge (usually meaning warmer temps) is going to build into Alaska. and possibly into northern Canada. The cold air that is usually in Canada will be evicted, and it will have to go somewhere. Models think that “somewhere” will be the eastern half of the USA. It might very well be colder (if that’s even possible) than it was at the begging of the month, or maybe not, we can’t say for sure. This is just a big picture forecast.

Could the models be completely wrong?

Of course! But, I think with what I have learned as a student at MSU and talking with professors in the meteorology department, this cold snap is looking likely and serious.

How cold will it be compared to the blast at the beginning of the month?

That is a very hard question to answer this far away. The core of the cold air could be further east this time around. Other variables include how cold it will be at the source and how much snow cover there will be across the country. All these will effect how cold it could get.

Some are comparing this to the 1985 inauguration of Ronald Reagan, when it was 2F in Washington during his address. Let’s hope everything pointing to a cold snap is completely wrong, Punxsutawney Phil does not see his shadow, and Spring is right around the corner come February 2nd.

Questions? We’re on Twitter @NashSevereWx.

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