Thursday
GFS Model
A cold front arrives Thursday morning, pushing rain out ahead of it, as shown by the GFS model:
Around noon Thursday, the cold front pushes through middle Tennessee, changing the rain to snow:
Around sundown, the moisture escapes east, and the snow ends:
This is just a dusting:
European Model
1″ in Davidson County, with about a half inch in Williamson County.
NAM Model
No accumulation. Only the plateau gets a dusting:
Sunday – Tuesday
At first I thought: this is not really worth talking about because confidence about what will happen is VERY LOW. However, I decided to include this post because many of you are asking about it after looking at the equally worthless apps that show forecasts 10 days out.
The models wildly disagree, and even if they were in agreement, it’s still too far away to have much confidence in it.
There’s a slight chance (about 20%) of a rain/snow mix early Sunday morning. Precip should change over to all rain Sunday.
The massive uncertainty is what happens after this cold front . . .
. . . pushes through Sunday night.
Here’s where the GFS, European, and DGEX models wildly disagree about what will happen Sunday night through Tuesday. The disagreement level is so high, our NWS says “confidence in any particular solution (model) is below average.” The models either predict dry conditions, wet conditions, or snowmageddon, depending on which slice of Sunday night through Tuesday you’re talking about.
For example, the Euro predicts temps Monday morning from 0 to -2. Tuesday morning it thinks we’ll be at -15. MINUS FIFTEEN! And with 8″ of snow on the ground. Other models laugh at that.
Models this far away often show extremes, then nothing happens.
Officially, our NWS includes a chance of snow, with low temps in the 20s.
Could there be snowmageddon? I suppose. But that’s not a responsible forecast, at least not right now.
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