Forecast Blogs

Mild & Wet, Then Two Chances For Snow Next Weekend

Tonight – Maybe Some Sprinkles  Overnight Low 43

6pm 51 . 9pm 48


The HRRR model tonight doesn’t think much of tonight’s rain chances. Sunday 6 p.m. – Monday 3 a.m.:

Monday – Clouds, With a Small Chance of Rain – Morning Low 43, High 56

6am 44 . 9am 48 . Noon 54 . 3pm 55 . 6pm 51 . 9pm 49

Tuesday – Partly Sunny – Morning Low 47, High 63

6am 48 . 9am 53 . Noon 60 . 3pm 62 . 6pm 57 . 9pm 54

Official NWS Forecast:

Screen Shot 2013-12-01 at 1.42.28 PM

Thursday & Friday will be mild and very wet. We expect about 3″ of rain:

Then comes the Snow Chances.

First, here’s a wonderful gif from our NWS, looping from Wednesday through Saturday.

Today, our NWS Issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook, outlining “two different periods next weekend where frozen precipitation could become a problem.” Before we proceed . . .

OBLIGATORY DISCLAIMER: Models are tools, not forecasts. The models I’m about to show you predict conditions 6 or more days away. They will very likely change. Rely on these like you would any prediction of the final score of Saturday’s SEC Championship game. For entertainment purposes only. Avoid contact with skin. Call before you dig. Contains phenylalanine. May induce vomiting. Do not use if pregnant. Fragile. Also, Italian. Your results may vary. Keep left. Not valid in all areas. Open other end. Proceed with extreme caution.

(1)  Friday Night

Our NWS says “a wintry mix will be possible late Friday into Saturday morning for all of Middle Tennessee.”

The two medium range models, GFS and Euro, wildly disagree about what we will see. The GFS says “no snow”, but the Euro predicts a snowmageddon (for us, at least). Behold:

The truth may be somewhere in the middle. Keep in mind, there could be all rain, sleet (melts on contact), freezing rain (rain freezes on contact), or all snow.

(2)  Saturday Night – Sunday Morning

The Intern made this nice gif of the GFS Model. It starts Friday at 6 p.m.  Each frame is 6 hours forward in time. It ends Sunday evening at Midnight:

The GFS isn’t a believer in the Friday night snow chances, but for Sunday morning/afternoon it predicts a mixed bag of freezing rain, sleet, or snow.

Then there’s the European model, which adds another 2″ or so to what it thinks we’ll get Friday night. Totals below would be for the entire weekend, ending Sunday at 6 p.m.:

Before you party/panic, don’t. Remember the above disclaimer. These models will change. Consider other models (like the Canadian) barley even deliver a dusting of snow — it thinks we’re in the rain all the time. It’s entirely possible none of this will happen.

Bottom Line: don’t make/cancel any plans based on this forecast. Just know there is reason to think it may snow this weekend. Stay tuned to reliable weather sources if you’re planning to travel this weekend.

Questions? We’re on Twitter @NashSevereWx.

Categories: Forecast Blogs