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NWS Special Weather Statement on Sleet Monday, Snow Tuesday Night

This afternoon, our NWS issued a Special Weather Statement for Middle Tennessee, including everyone in Davidson and Williamson Counties. It’s quoted in blue, below.

In short, the answer to the question: will it snow?

A quick review of the difference between Rain, Freezing Rain, Sleet, and Snow. This helps explain why wintry precip occurs even when it’s above/near freezing at the surface:

 

Monday – Rain/Sleet – Morning Low 25, High 41

6am 27 . 9am 32 . Noon 39 . 3pm 40 . 6pm 38 . 9pm 37

A weather disturbance in the southern plains (currently seen here):    

will bring a round of light rain mixed with sleet beginning Monday afternoon and continu[ing] through Monday night.

Tuesday – Light Evening Snow Possible – Morning Low 34, High 42

6am 34 . 9am 37 . Noon 41 . 3pm 41 . 6pm 36 . 9pm 32 . Midnight 30

Precipitation will be mostly light rain during the day on Tuesday before changing to light snow Tuesday night with minor accumulations possible along the plateau. Light snow will end from the west early Wednesday.

Note: the NWS “accumulating snow” forecast is for the plateau, not for us.

But, I thought it would be fun (of course I did!) to review the models and see what they say about snow chances for us:

 

These models change. A lot! They’re not forecasts, but they’re saying there is a chance.

Tomorrow morning, we’ll have the benefit of the Canadian and WRF models, which will finally get in range of a Tuesday night snow event.

Travel looks pretty good Wednesday. Thanksgiving will be cold and clear.

Questions? We’re on Twitter @NashSevereWx.

 

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