Afternoon Update on Tonight’s Severe Weather: Threat Diminishing?

Posted on by David

At 1:34 pm, the Storm Prediction Center said there’s a 95% chance they’d issue us a Tornado Watch for us “within the hour.”

At 2:15 p.m., there was still no Tornado Watch. At 2:24 p.m., SPC decided to hold off on issuing a Tornado Watch at this time. Then, at 2:55 pm, SPC decided to issue the Tornado Watch for Kentucky, but excluding us:

However, we are not out of the woods until this stuff goes EAST of us tonight:

At 2 p.m., the National Weather Service in Nashville conducted a conference call with media/emergency management. Main points:

  • Winds will be strong and gusty from the south, gusting to 30-40 mph. A Wind Advisory is in effect until 10 p.m. Shallow rooted trees have the most to fear from this.
  • A broken band/line of thunderstorms may impact the area late this afternoon, and into the evening. Best chance for this is near the Tennessee River and by the Kentucky border. This is unlikely to impact us (Davidson/Williamson County).
  • Another, separate, main line of thunderstorms will develop along the cold front later this evening, with an ETA to I-65 around 8 p.m. or so. This is the main concern.
  • All storms will pose a threat of damaging winds and possibly isolated tornadoes.
  • “It’s going to be a real close call” between not having anything at all and a few strong, severe, and possibly tornadic storms. We’re on the very southern edge of a Major Severe Weather Outbreak ongoing to our north, so it’s really difficult to discern where the threat ends.

At 2 p.m. the Storm Prediction Center updated its severe weather outlook, as follows:

This represents a decrease in wind, tornado, and hail threats from SPC’s late-morning update. This is likely in response to the morning rain, lingering cloud cover, and lack of sunlight hitting the surface to heat us up and promote storm-friendly destabilization. Additionally, it appears warmer air at 5,000 feet is streaming in, which will act to “cap” any severe storm potential.

So, things look good, but we are not in the clear. Closely monitor reliable severe weather sources.

Do not rely solely on this website for severe weather information. Updated information can be found on Twitter @NashSevereWx.