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One More Cold Night, Then Warming! Possible Storms Next Week

Rest of Tonight – Overnight Low 29

7pm 45 . 10pm 38 . 1 am 35

[Editor’s Note: The Intern does not live in squalor].

Anyone else look like this getting out the shower this morning?

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I’m cheap and have not turned the heat on. I’m a poor college student. It’s how we survive…

We are 20 degrees below average. The official low this morning was 30 degrees. It has been 212 days (March 27, 2013) since we were this cold.

blame canada

Saturday – **Freeze Warning** – Overnight Low 29, Afternoon High 60

7a 31. 10a 45 . 1p 56 . 4p 59 . 7p 54 . 10p 49

There is another Freeze Warning in effect from 12 a.m. to 9 a.m. Saturday for all of Middle Tennessee. RIP uncovered vegetation.

Winds out of the south will thaw us out. No rain in the forecast.

Sunday – Warming – Morning Low 43, Afternoon High 63

7a 44 . 10a 51 . 1p 60 . 4p 62 . 7p 54 . 10p 47

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The sun will shine above southerly winds, which will warm us up. No 30s in this forecast!

Monday – Warmer

Temps climb even higher, and we may even reach 70!

Storms Next Week? [Editor’s Supplement]

We’re pretty sure it’s going to rain next week. Uncertainties include (1) timing and (2) whether it’ll storm.

The two main medium-range weather models disagree.

GFS

As we tweeted this morning, this model — if it verifies — suggests storms Trick-or-Treat morning:

Dew points would approach 60, providing plenty of storm fuel for the colliding cold and warm airmasses:

This model run doesn’t necessarily suggest Stormageddon. Note the parent low pressure center (L) is displaced way far north (Chicagoland). The system is also slightly positively tilted (the axis of the storm line is oriented more NE to SW; negative tilt is NW to SE), which suggests a less-robust system. This system should depart in time for Trick or Treating.

ECMWF

We are not allowed show you the graphics themselves, but here’s how it differs from the Thursday morning GFS:

These storms are expected to arrive just as Trick-or-Treating ends, and present a less-stormy solution than the GFS.

Important: when these models disagree like this, and when you’re looking at them 150 hours from the target time, take them with a grain of salt. Also consider these models run 4x and 2x a day. Previous runs have disagreed with current runs. I think the Wed-Thu-Fri ETA for rain is a good bet, the rest of it is in Voodoo/Guess-land

We’ll keep you posted. It bears watching because severe weather certainly is possible, but not currently expected, by mid-week.

Questions? We’re on Twitter @NashSevereWx.

Categories: Uncategorized