Monday (Columbus Day) – Partly Sunny – High 78
7 a.m. 59 10 a.m. 68 1 p.m. 75 4 p.m. 77 7 p.m. 73 10 p.m. 67
No rain in the forecast.
(For a different perspective on Columbus, I read A People’s History of the United States: 1492-Present).
Wet Mid-Week (Tuesday through Thursday)
Mid 70s Tue; Mid 60s Wed/Thu
Clouds arrive Tuesday.
By Tuesday night, rain will arrive in middle Tennessee, lasting through Thursday. This is grim news for soccer practice Wednesday night.
How Much? WPC estimates remain well under 1″ from this system. The GFS (below) agrees, predicting under 1″ through Thursday night:
The European model slows the system a bit. It thinks we’ll get more than 1″.
Will It Storm? Yeah, probably, but severe weather is not anticipated. Heavy rain and localized high winds in a few cells are possible. This will primarily be a rain event.
Weather Nerd Alert! If Disinterested, Skip Past the Blue Section to Read About the Weekend! This mid-week system is “positively tilted,” associated with weaker storm systems compared to negatively tilted systems. See below. The positive tilt occurs when the line dividing the dry-cold air from the moist-warm air stretches SW from the low pressure center:
A “negative tilt” occurs when the line dividing the dry-cold air from the moist-warm air stretches to the SE of the low pressure center. A negatively tilted system is commonly associated with severe weather.
Read more about this, here.
Next Weekend – Uh Oh! – Low 70s Fri/Sat
Early model runs had been playing nicely with our weekend. The GFS still predicts a glorious fall weekend.
Lately, the European model started messing with our weekend, hinting at the arrival of a “closed low” Saturday (this means rain). The Euro even thinks the low could go “negatively tilted” (see the weather nerd alert above), bringing not just rain, but storms Saturday. We’ll be watching closely.
Questions? Hit us up on Twitter @NashSevereWx.
Categories: Forecast Blogs