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Beautiful Fri-Sat + Breaking Down Sunday’s Rain Chances

Tonight – Mostly Clear – High 78

Just a few clouds. No rain.

Friday – Sunny  – High 83

7a 61 . 10a 72 . 1p 81 . 4p 83 . 7p 77 . 10p 68

More morning fog possible, although it shouldn’t be as bad as it was Thursday morning.

Almost perfect weather, with relatively low humidity. Nice high school football weather.

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Saturday – Sunny – High 84

7a 61 . 10a 73 . 1p 82 . 4p 84 . 7p 78 . 10p 69

Wonderful weather for all outdoor activities.

For the Vanderbilt vs UAB game, the 6:30 pm temp will be 79, with winds out of the south around 5 mph.

 

 

Sunday – It May Rain – High 79

The “will it rain?” forecast is complicated.

Time to break it down, Madden style. 

A cold front will be approaching us Sunday. Such a front is usually a rain generator when it comes along with a low pressure system. When a counter-clockwise low pressure center approaches from the west, it creates a south wind, which pulls moisture into Middle TN from the Gulf of Mexico. The front hits the warm, moist air, lifts it, then it falls as rain.

However, in this case, the center of the low pressure system associated with Sunday’s cold front will be waaaaay north of us — in Canada. It will have a hard time pulling anything out of the Gulf. It’ll simply be too far away.

There will still be a weak south wind, pulling *some* moisture into Middle TN from the Gulf. The question is whether it be enough moisture for the cold front to produce rain. If it’s not enough moisture, it’ll just be an overcast day.

So, what’s the answer?

The GFS (a weather model) says “a little rain, after the Titans game”:

The European model (I’ve looked at the graphic, but I can’t show it to you because Europe won’t let me) thinks we may see sprinkles, but no real rainfall.

Our NWS posted a 40% chance of rain.

Clear as mud, right?

Bottom Line: Like almost everything, this forecast is subject to change. For now, don’t alter your outdoor plans. It may rain a little, but we think a washout is unlikely. Check back tomorrow, Saturday, and Sunday morning for updates. Got questions? Hit us up on Twitter @NashSevereWx.

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