Updated at 12:10 p.m.
Here is a Special Weather Statement from our NWS:
...TORRENTIAL RAIN AND STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE... AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ONE OF THESE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES WILL MOVE INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND WIND GUSTS TO 45MPH. SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE MAINLY TOWARDS DAWN WEDNESDAY AS SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND MARCH EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH MIDDLE TENNESSEE VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH STRONG WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL BEING THE MAIN THREATS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT...AND AT THIS TIME...A TORNADO THREAT LOOKS VERY LOW. IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT AFFECT MIDDLE TENNESSEE TODAY... TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL NOT NEARLY BE AS SIGNIFICANT AS WHAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY IN OKLAHOMA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE BETWEEN ROUGHLY 3AM AND 8AM NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER...WITH STORMS WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE FURTHER EAST. A THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS WILL STILL EXIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE STORM SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.
Below is a weatherbell.com animated gif showing a the “waves” or “rounds” of storms approaching (today, from 6 a.m. to noon):
The SPC is currently monitoring our area for a Severe Thunderstorm Watch. The chance of them issuing one is 40%. The main threat is strong/severe winds and heavy rainfall:
Late this morning, the Storm Prediction Center updated its severe weather outlooks, as follows:
Probability of Damaging Winds happening within 25 miles of you before 7 a.m. Wednesday: increased from 5% to 15%. This remains the primary threat.
Probability of Large Hail happening within 25 miles of you before 7 a.m. Wednesday: increased from 5% to 15%.
Probability of a Tornado within 25 miles of you before 7 a.m. Wednesday: Remains less than 2%. We are still just *outside* this risk area:
The Storm Prediction Center has now included us within a Slight Risk of severe weather for Wednesday after 7 a.m. They’ll add a breakdown of tornado/hail/wind threats no earlier than 1 a.m. Wed morning.
Additional updates and real-time imminent/occurring storm information can also be found on Twitter @NashSevereWx.
Categories: Forecast Blogs