Noon Update on Severe Weather for Today, Tonight, & Tomorrow
Tuesday, May 21, 2013 · David
Updated at 12:10 p.m.
Here is a Special Weather Statement from our NWS:
...TORRENTIAL RAIN AND STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...
AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA
AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ONE
OF THESE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES WILL MOVE INTO
MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE MAIN THREATS WITH
THESE STORMS WILL BE
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 45MPH. SCATTERED
STORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND AN ISOLATED
SEVERE STORM OR TWO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT.
HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCE FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE MAINLY TOWARDS DAWN
WEDNESDAY AS SEVERE STORMS
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
AND MARCH EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
MIDDLE TENNESSEE VERY LATE
TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
STRONG WINDS AND TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL BEING THE MAIN
THREATS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...AND AT
THIS TIME...A TORNADO THREAT
LOOKS VERY LOW. IT SHOULD
BE EMPHASIZED THAT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT AFFECT
MIDDLE TENNESSEE TODAY...
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL
NOT NEARLY BE AS
SIGNIFICANT AS WHAT
OCCURRED YESTERDAY IN
OKLAHOMA.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE BETWEEN
ROUGHLY 3AM AND 8AM NEAR
THE TENNESSEE RIVER...WITH
STORMS WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE
FURTHER EAST. A THREAT FOR
STRONG STORMS WILL STILL
EXIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY
WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE STORM
SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION.
Below is a weatherbell.com animated gif showing a the “waves” or “rounds” of storms approaching (today, from 6 a.m. to noon):
The SPC is currently monitoring our area for a Severe Thunderstorm Watch. The chance of them issuing one is 40%. The main threat is strong/severe winds and heavy rainfall:
Late this morning, the Storm Prediction Center updated its severe weather outlooks, as follows:
Probability of Damaging Winds happening within 25 miles of you before 7 a.m. Wednesday: increased from 5% to 15%. This remains the primary threat.
Probability of Large Hail happening within 25 miles of you before 7 a.m. Wednesday: increased from 5% to 15%.
Probability of a Tornado within 25 miles of you before 7 a.m. Wednesday: Remains less than 2%. We are still just *outside* this risk area:
Wednesday
The Storm Prediction Center has now included us within a Slight Risk of severe weather for Wednesday after 7 a.m. They’ll add a breakdown of tornado/hail/wind threats no earlier than 1 a.m. Wed morning.
Additional updates and real-time imminent/occurring storm information can also be found on Twitter @NashSevereWx.