Below is the weatherbell.com animated gif showing storms across the region from 1 p.m. until around 7 p.m. tonight:
This afternoon’s Forecast Discussion from the NWS made three main points:
1. The storms marching this way from Arkansas tonight into the wee hours of the morning may weaken. This appears to be happening. Small hail and 40 mph are below severe criteria.
2. More strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday morning. Afternoon storms should be strongest.
3. More rain and a few storms — not severe — should linger into Thursday.
If you prefer the NWS write up:
..STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ON AND OFF THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING.
TONIGHT...THE LINE OF CONVECTION [thunderstorms] PUSHING OUT OF ARKANSAS WILL LIKELY BE OVERTAKEN BY CONVECTION IN EASTERN OK. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LINE WILL LIKELY TAKE OVER AS WE HAVE STABILIZED FROM TODAY`S CONVECTION. THUS... WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THIS LINE APPROACH MIDDLE TN LATE TONIGHT-EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY IF NOT DISSIPATE COMPLETELY. EITHER OCCURRENCE WILL YIELD ANOTHER CHANCE TO DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW, WITH MORE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY LATE MORNING BUT ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. WE`LL HAVE BETTER SHEAR IN PLACE AS WELL, WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE ALONG AND EAST OF I-65. SPC PLACED US IN A DAY TWO SLIGHT RISK AGAIN WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT... MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS (LIKELY NON-SEVERE) WILL ACCOMPANY THE TRAILING UPPER LOW THROUGH THURSDAY AND WE WILL FINALLY DRY OUT THURSDAY NIGHT WEST TO EAST.
This afternoon, the Storm Prediction Center updated its severe weather outlooks, as follows:
The probability of Damaging Winds happening within 25 miles of you before 7 a.m. Wednesday remains at 15%:
Probability of Large Hail happening within 25 miles of you before 7 a.m. Wednesday: Remains 15%.
Probability of a Tornado within 25 miles of you before 7 a.m. Wednesday: Now 2%.
Here is the Storm Prediction Center’s updated Wednesday outlook. Notice we have a “Slight” risk of severe weather. SPC will add a breakdown of tornado/hail/wind threats no earlier than 1 a.m. Wed morning.
Additional updates and real-time imminent/occurring storm information can be found on Twitter @NashSevereWx.
Categories: Forecast Blogs