This afternoon we thought the rain — which moved east — was going to stay east. It hasn’t.
At 7:27pm, light rain showers crept northwest across both counties:
Why is this happening? This satellite image (from 7:15pm) explains:
As long as that center of circulation in near Memphis continues to just sit there, we’ll oscillate between wet and dry.
The HRRR thinks the rain will continue off and on from early tonight through 3am Sunday morning:
The spinning in Arkansas gets closer, but the models suggest we stay dry Sunday morning until mid-afternoon.
The WRF delivers rain around 4pm:
The GFS model agrees – rain chances increase around 4pm Sunday:
The Hi-Res NAM also agrees (three in a row!), turning on the rain around 4pm:
Even the SREF and European models agree with the 4pm ETA. The rain will be light, and we should be in the 60s by the time it falls.
That said, there still remains a chance of rain in the morning and early afternoon. With that low pressure system passing so close to us, it’s nuts to rule out rain at any time tomorrow.
We’ll have a chance of thunderstorms Monday and an accompanying rain chance, but it looks like the bulk of the rain is behind us. I hope.