Discussing Thursday’s severe weather this afternoon, our NWS said:
TIMING REMAINS QUITE UNCERTAIN FOR WHEN PRECIP ARRIVES ... LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY...AND HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS FOR NOW IN COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING NWS FORECAST OFFICES. DESPITE LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING...THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS OCCURRING...
“Quite uncertain.” Helpful, isn’t it?
Blame the weather models for the uncertainty. Let’s look at four of them and their varying ETAs.
1. American NAM Model. ETA – wee hours of Thursday morning, while (most of us) sleep.2. American GFS model. ETA – Thursday morning rush hour.
3. American Short Range Ensemble Forecast model, aka the SREF for those of you
wanting to impress your friends out yourself as a weather nerd. ETA – Thursday, mid morning.
4. The European model, which actually does great here in the U.S.A. It was the only model to accurately predict Superstorm Sandy would strike the northeast. Like all models, it’s not perfect. ETA – Thursday around 9pm.
The NWS thinks if the NAM and SREF are right, the storms will arrive weaker. So, let’s all hope for the storms to show up mid-morning Thursday.
DESPITE THIS...NAM AND PARTICULARLY THE SREF WEAKEN THE LINE OF STORMS AS IT MOVES INTO AND ACROSS THE MID STATE. THUS SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL REMAINS QUITE UNCLEAR WITH THIS SYSTEM.