Light precipitation begins late this afternoon, continues until after midnight. We expect the margins to be razor thin with this event as to exactly which type of precip occurs where you are. Generally speaking, the chances for all rain and no impacts are highest in S Williamson Co, and the chances for a mostly sleet/snow mixture with temps reaching 32° or below are highest in N Davidson. A mix of sleet, snow and rain will likely exist in between and may go back and forth multiple times. Could even see some freezing rain mix in at times, especially in the higher elevations of W Williamson Co.

The 17z (11:00 am run) of the HRRR illustrates a plausible scenario and shows well the challenge in forecasting precip type. Blue is snow, purple is sleet and green is rain. Loop 2pm-3am.

Temps Will Be Critical

If temps hold at 33° at the surface, no worries with travel. If we dip down below freezing, we could start getting some slick spots. Bridges and overpasses are usually first to freeze. Then, untreated roads….if it gets that far.

The current forecast for BNA is for the air temp to stay above freezing during the highest precip chance hours and through the early morning. But, it’s close.

But, these numbers are different for Joelton, which is on the Highland Rim. Joelton is forecast to dip below freezing.

Point is: use caution through the night and tomorrow morning no matter where you are. Roads could become slick over a short distance and elevation.

Extended Fcst

We stay rain free Friday-Saturday. Showers come back into the picture Sunday….maybe some additional mixed precip Sunday night. We’ll see.