A storm may pop this afternoon but the HRRR is clear. Storms more likely east of us. Small hail and gusty winds the potential hazards. We are not severe outlooked.
- Heat and Humidity Thu-Fri. Temps near 90 with dewpoints mid to upper 60s. Summer peeking out of the gopher hole.
2. HRRR has storms Thu PM rush hour. May go north, maybe not. We’ll watch this. No severe expected here. Lightning, heavy rain instead.
3. Severe weather outlooked for us Friday. Rain/Storms appear likely. This below outlook means that within those storms, there is a 15% of a severe weather event within 25 miles of you.
- Timing still iffy. Any Friday morning storms (unlikely severe) would reduce the severe threat later. Euro model below thinks Rd 1 early Friday night then Rd 2 after midnight. The first round is likely to be the strong/severe one, especially if the atmosphere is untouched by rain earlier in the day. A Rd 2 will be mostly rain and maybe some wind. Will have better idea on timing tonight when the HRRR and other CAMs (convective allowing models) get in range.
- Forecast data shows a humid atmosphere should create a waterloaded, lightning-frequent event. This is a LOT of storm fuel in place Friday afternoon.
- “Trying to pin down specific risks and exact timing remains elusive, as there are still too many unknowns.” NWS-Nashville.
- Large hail and damaging straight line winds are the main concern Friday. Tornado cannot be ruled out but that seems unlikely.
4. The weekend may (?) still be wet. Euro model drops the front well south of us which may save us. But, we may have suffered too much rain Friday and overnight into Saturday for rollyballing: some data has over 1″+ just in the Friday event. Still, not all models agree with the Euro, so NWS kept a chance of addt’l rain in the forecast for Saturday afternoon to account for model differences and uncertainties. Another round is possible, if not likely, Sunday afternoon. Nothing severe on the weekend, though. Severe just Friday.
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