Beautiful Spring-like day ongoing.
Similar temperatures expected Thursday but can’t rule out a shower or thunderstorm during the afternoon/evening. No severe weather expected – can’t totally rule out some heavy downpours or even some pea-sized hail with a thunderstorm or two. Some of us will stay totally dry.
HRRR model gives a guess below:
Friday during the day will be dry and warm, we’ll get close to 80°.
Friday night is when we turn our attention to the potential severe weather threat.
What: A line or broken line of storms, potentially severe, main threat will be damaging straight-line winds but can’t rule out hail and/or tornadoes
When: Friday night into early Saturday morning
Risk: SPC currently has areas along and W of 65 outlooked with a 30% chance of severe weather, areas E of 65 with a 15% chance of severe weather. Specifics probs for individual hazards will be out tomorrow
Uncertainties: Will storms be able to form? How much instability (storm fuel) will still be available? How much quality moisture will the storms have to work with?
Below are 4 different model’s guesses on what the radar could look like at 4a Saturday.
With this being an overnight event, it’s a good idea to have multiple ways to receive warnings. NOAA Weather Radio, wake-me-up app on your phone (such as StormWatch+), the Wireless Emergency Alerts on your phone – all good ways. Do not rely on sirens to wake you up, they are not meant to be heard indoors.
We’ll be watching this and sending out updates as needed. This will be our main focus for the meantime. Again, main threat will be damaging straight-line winds but cannot rule out hail and/or tornadoes. Details will get tweaked between now and then.
Another potential for severe weather comes around Saturday.
What: Additional severe weather will be possible, again with all modes of severe weather being possible
When: Saturday afternoon and evening
Risks: Both of our counties are outlooked with a 15% chance of severe weather within 25 miles, higher probabilities to our southeast
Uncertainties: How much does our atmosphere recover from the first round of storms? Do we get enough instability and moisture to support severe weather?
We’ll also be watching for some minor flooding across the area, as 2-3″ of rain look possible.
A bit more uncertainty exists with this round, as a lot of it will depend on how our “Round One” plays out.
Depending on where the warm front ends up, we could just be looking at some heavy rain or more severe weather potential.
We’ll be watching this as well, watching for trends with the models and such. Lots will change between now and then.
Generally speaking, it will be a good idea to stay connected and be weather aware from Friday evening to Saturday evening.
We’ll clear out and “cool” down a bit on Sunday. Start of next week will be dry.
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