Before we discuss our active weekend, it is absolutely beautiful outside. High temp at BNA today was 79° – twenty degrees above average. Not a cloud in the sky.
Wednesday will be a copy and paste of today. Highs in the mid to upper 70s. Another great day to be outside.
While Thursday will still be warm, we have our first rain chances.
Models think most of the activity will be to our south, but we could see a shower or thunderstorm in our neck of the woods Thursday afternoon and evening. No severe weather expected but wouldn’t be shocked if some of us saw a thunderstorm.
Euro model gives its guess below:
Friday during the day should be dry and warm. Most of us will end up in the upper 70s – maybe a few places touching 80°.
Friday evening/night is when we start to turn our attention to the first of two possible rounds of strong to severe storms.
Both our counties continue to be outlooked with a 15% chance of severe weather within 25 miles for Friday into early Saturday morning, as the outlook is technically valid until 7a Saturday.
Unfortunately, the timing for this one looks to be overnight Friday into early Saturday morning. This is still several days out, so this timing could certainly change – and confidence, although increasing, is still somewhat low, reason for the broad timeframe.
Storm will fire up to our west (where the higher probabilities are) are make their way towards us. Models are in somewhat decent agreement about this.
Below are 5 different models’ depiction on what the radar could look like at 1a on Saturday.
What models are in disagreement about is how much moisture, instability, and lift will be in place. Details will likely begin to become clearer in the coming days as the higher-res models begin to come into range.
For now, this will have to be watched. All modes of severe weather will be possible, with damaging straight-line winds appearing to be the main threat.
We’ll also have to watch Saturday for another round of potential severe weather, with heavy rain also potentially being an issue.
We are yet again outlooked with a 15% chance of severe weather within 25 miles. The most likely timing for this round appears to be Saturday afternoon into the evening – although this is subject to change.
There is a bit more uncertainty right now with this round.
A low-pressure system is expected to develop to our west, with it a warm front will develop. Where this warm front ends up will be the main factor in whether or not we deal with severe weather or just heavy rain. If we are north of the front = severe weather will be less likely; south of the front = severe weather will be more likely.
Currently, areas to our south/southeast have a higher chance of being south of the warm front – aka “in the warm sector” – thus the higher severe weather probabilities down there (as of right now).
This will also have to be watched, as all modes of severe weather would again be possible – along the with threat of isolated flooding.
There’s already a lot of talk and hype over Friday and Saturday – a lot of scary terms and analogs being thrown around. Stick to reliable sources such as the National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center.
While it is certainly not the time to panic and sound the alarms, it will be good to stay connected over the next several days for the inevitable changes to the forecast. Prepared, not scared. We’ll keep you posted!
Outside of the possible storms Friday and Saturday, it will be windy with gusts in the 30 – 40 mph range possible. Thankfully, it doesn’t look as windy as it was last week.
Sunday will be dry and cooler – the theme that will continue into early next week.
Log In To Facebook To Comment