Snow Increasingly Likely Friday, Potential Travel Impacts Starting Early As Friday Morning

Although I am always hesitant with snowfall potential in our area, model guidance continues to point to us getting at least some snow on Friday. However, there’s still a good bit that still has to work itself out.

All data is subject to change – and probably will!

Timing

Latest model guidance shows snow arriving sometime Friday morning and lasting throughout the evening.

Snow will likely start to stick shortly after beginning to fall, if not right away, with surface temperatures being below freezing.

For what it is worth, here’s what 4 different models think the radar could look like at 6a Friday. All show the snow either already here or arriving shortly after.

Accumulation Probabilities

This far out, I still like the idea on focusing on accumulation probabilities rather than looking at exact numbers. Maybe it’s because I feel like I’m in Moneyball…IDK. As long as the snow gets on base?

These numbers could change, and this is just the latest as of Tuesday afternoon.

The National Blend of Models shows a 60 – 70% chance of at least 2″ of snow…

…a 30 – 40% chance of at least 4″ of snow…

…and a mere 10 – 20% chance of at least 6″ of snow.

All these numbers could change, either up or down.

Two main things that could lessen those snow totals.

• The surface low tracks farther south, limiting the moisture we have – which could limit the amount of snow.
• Models think temperatures get very close to, if not above freezing briefly Friday afternoon, which could limit the amount of snow that sticks.

Neither of those are guarantees, but something to watch!

Travel is likely to be impacted in some fashion starting Friday and potentially lasting into the weekend. Here are some refreshers about driving in the snow.

Temperatures will continue to be cold. As of 6p Tuesday, we haven’t been above freezing since 7a Monday morning.

Melting will occur at different rates for different places. We are expected to get above freezing Saturday, Sunday and Monday- but only briefly and temperatures will drop back below freezing at night. Temperature, sun, shade, how much the road is traveled on – all impacts melting rate.

Interstates/highways likely to be maintained better than backroads. But! Doesn’t mean any of them will be safe.

A Winter Storm Watch will probably be issued soon-ish. We’ll keep you updated on updates as they roll in. In the meantime, maybe try to remember where the sled is and knock the dust off.