Cold Week Ahead, Looking at the Snow Potential on Friday/Saturday

You may see a few flakes flying around over the next couple of days, but no accumulation is expected. There could be some slick spots on the roads tho – especially bridges and overpasses.

Before we talk about any of the winter weather stuff – it’s going to be downright cold this week.

Highs stuck in the 30s all week, lows in the 20s, even getting down into the teens some nights.

Wear multiple layers if you have to be outside. Insulate your pipes if needed and winterize your home to its needs.

Now onto everyone’s favorite part – talking about winter weather.

There is growing confidence that we could see some accumulating snowfall sometime Friday/Saturday. We are still ~ 4 days out from this, so a lot will likely change.

For now, our percentages for accumulating snowfall have slowly been increasing.

The GFS Ensemble shows a 60 – 70% chance of at least 1″ of snow.

The Euro Ensemble shows an 80 – 90% chance of at least 1″ of snow.

Those numbers I think are a tad aggressive; the latest NWS Nashville thinking is a 50 – 60% chance of at least 1″ of snow. Those numbers seem a bit more reasonable this far out, but the two major global models showing that strong of a signal this far out is certainly saying something.

Note the possible changes in the graphic, while currently if we do see any precip – it’s expected to be all snow. However, warm air aloft could make that it a bag of mixed precipitation.

While there is pretty good agreement, especially with the Euro ensemble, about where the center of low-pressure tracks – there is still some uncertainty about its exact track. If it tracks a little farther out into the Gulf, then we’d likely see less moisture which = less precip. The different numbers on the map show where the different ensemble members think the center of low-pressure will be on Friday evening.

Way too soon to give any accumulation forecast, or even a range of them.

I see no reason to rush to the grocery store to stock up on milk and bread for all the milk sandwiches, but we’ll be watching all the trends and such. Details will become clearer as we continue to get closer. Forecast could and probably will change! Stay connected.