Highlights:
- some showers (maybe a rumble of thunder) this afternoon & evening
- Wednesday evening/night looks wet while Thanksgiving Day is trending drier
- coldest air so far this Fall arrives late this week
Some ongoing (as of 4:30p) drizzle and showers will continue throughout the evening. HRRR gives a guess:
There may be just enough instability to squeeze out a rumble of thunder or two, but generally speaking, most of the activity should be light. No worries.
Tuesday and at least part of Wednesday, two very busy travel days, look dry.
Here’s a snapshot of the HRRR model, valid at noon Wednesday. Shows most of the region dry.
Rain is expected to move in sometime Wednesday evening, but models disagree on how long the showers stick around for.
“I think I come bearing some good news with this forecast package. Thanksgiving may not be the turkey we originally thought.” – NWS Nashville AFD
The Euro is a fan of outdoor Thanksgiving plans, keeping the whole day dry.
The GFS thinks scattered showers hang around for at least the first half of the day, clearing out by the afternoon and evening.
The NAM (while certainly not a favorite, still has an opinion) thinks we get by with a dry Wednesday evening and Thanksgiving, maybe a quick passing shower early Thanksgiving morning. While I don’t think this is the most likely outcome…this would be good news for any travelers and outdoor plans.
The HRRR model will come into range tomorrow, so we’ll get another opinion there.
Either way, even if there is rain, it’s expected to just be some showers – not anything that will dramatically affect travel.
Stay tuned for updates.
A cold airmass is still expected to invade the area following Thanksgiving, providing us with our first freeze of the season, which is quite overdue.
Lows down in the 20s will be possible this weekend, with highs only in the low 40s. A certain football game on Saturday in Nashvile looks chilly.
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